Related papers: Stock Prices as Janardan Galton Watson Process
Stochastic dividend discount models (Hurley and Johnson, 1994 and 1998, Yao, 1997) present expressions for the expected value of stock prices when future dividends evolve according to some random scheme. In this paper we try to offer a more…
In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We focus attention on the relative price defined as $ X(t) = S(t)/S(0) $, where $ S(0) $ is the initial price. We selected approximately…
We consider the critical Galton-Watson process with overlapping generations stemming from a single founder. Assuming that both the variance of the offspring number and the average generation length are finite, we establish the convergence…
We consider Galton-Watson trees with ${\rm Bin}(d,p)$ offspring distribution. We let $T_{\infty}(p)$ denote such a tree conditioned on being infinite. For $d=2,3$ and any $1/d\leq p_1 <p_2 \leq 1$, we show that there exists a coupling…
The Black-Scholes formula for pricing options on stocks and other securities has been generalized by Merton and Garman to the case when stock volatility is stochastic. The derivation of the price of a security derivative with stochastic…
Stochastic volatility models describe stock returns $r_t$ as driven by an unobserved process capturing the random dynamics of volatility $v_t$. The present paper quantifies how much information about volatility $v_t$ and future stock…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
It is our intention to provide via fractional calculus a generalization of the pure and compound Poisson processes, which are known to play a fundamental role in renewal theory, without and with reward, respectively. We first recall the…
We study a random version of the population-market model proposed by Arlot, Marmi and Papini in Arlot et al. (2019). The latter model is based on the Yoccoz-Birkeland integral equation and describes a time evolution of livestock commodities…
A new model for the stock market price analysis is proposed. It is suggested to look at price as an everywhere discontinuous function of time of bounded variation.
The prediction of a stock price has always been a challenging issue, as its volatility can be affected by many factors such as national policies, company financial reports, industry performance, and investor sentiment etc.. In this paper,…
We consider a branching random walk initiated by a single particle at location 0 in which particles alternately reproduce according to the law of a Galton-Watson process and disperse according to the law of a driftless random walk on the…
We develop a theory of bid and ask price dynamics where the two prices form due to interaction of buy and sell orders. In this model the two prices are represented by eigenvalues of a 2x2 price operator corresponding to "bid" and "ask"…
A Galton-Watson process in a varying environment is a discrete time branching process where the offspring distributions vary among generations. It is known that in the critical case, these processes have a Yaglom limit, that is, a suitable…
A methodology is developed to identify, as units of study, each decrease in the value of a stock from a given maximum price level. A critical level in the amount of price declines is found to separate a segment operating under a random walk…
We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this…
In this paper, we study a parallel version of Galton-Watson processes for the random generation of tree-shaped structures. Random trees are useful in many situations (testing, binary search, simulation of physics phenomena,...) as attests…
The Weibull function is widely used to describe skew distributions observed in nature. However, the origin of this ubiquity is not always obvious to explain. In the present paper, we consider the well-known Galton-Watson branching process…
In this paper we study a 2-type linear-fractional branching process in varying environment with asymptotically constant mean matrices. Let $\nu$ be the extinction time and for $k\ge1$ let $M_k$ be the mean matrix of offspring distribution…
We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous…