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We propose a parametrization of autoregressive unit roots ARMA models (ARUMA) with partial autocorrelation coefficients to specify the autoregressive and integrated part of the model. We obtain the algebraic properties of the partial…
Detecting out of distribution (OOD) samples is of paramount importance in all Machine Learning applications. Deep generative modeling has emerged as a dominant paradigm to model complex data distributions without labels. However, prior work…
Time series forecasting (TSF) is essential in various domains, and recent advancements in diffusion-based TSF models have shown considerable promise. However, these models typically adopt traditional diffusion patterns, treating TSF as a…
We present the use of continuous-time autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models as a method for estimating the variability features of a light curve, and in particular its power spectral density (PSD). CARMA models fully account for…
The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal…
A transformation relation between multivariate ARMA and CARMA processes is derived through a discretization procedure. This gives a direct relationship between the discrete time and continuous time analogues, serving as the basis for an…
Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data…
A novel first-order autoregressive moving average model for analyzing discrete-time series observed at irregularly spaced times is introduced. Under Gaussianity, it is established that the model is strictly stationary and ergodic. In the…
This paper derives a Minimum Message Length (MML) criterion for the model selection of the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series model. The MML87 performances on the ARMA model compared with other well known model selection…
In this paper we derive the asymptotic properties of the least squares estimator (LSE) of autoregressive moving-average (ARMA) models with regime changes under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent.…
In practice, several time series exhibit long-range dependence or persistence in their observations, leading to the development of a number of estimation and prediction methodologies to account for the slowly decaying autocorrelations. The…
The Unit-Lindley is a one-parameter family of distributions in $(0,1)$ obtained from an appropriate transformation of the Lindley distribution. In this work, we introduce a class of dynamical time series models for continuous random…
We develop a new efficient algorithm for the analysis of large-scale time series data. We firstly define rolling averages, derive their analytical properties, and establish their asymptotic distribution. These theoretical results are…
This paper considers a distributed detection setup where agents in a network want to detect a time-varying signal embedded in temporally correlated noise. The signal of interest is the impulse response of an ARMA (auto-regressive moving…
Time series of matrix-valued data are increasingly available in various areas including economics, finance, social science, among others. These data may shed light on the inter-dynamical relationships between two sets of attributes, for…
This paper considers quantile regression for a wide class of time series models including ARMA models with asymmetric GARCH (AGARCH) errors. The classical mean-variance models are reinterpreted as conditional location-scale models so that…
We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…
Global information is essential for dense prediction problems, whose goal is to compute a discrete or continuous label for each pixel in the images. Traditional convolutional layers in neural networks, initially designed for image…
In this work we introduce the class of unit-Weibull Autoregressive Moving Average models for continuous random variables taking values in $(0,1)$. The proposed model is an observation driven one, for which, conditionally on a set of…
The multi-reference alignment (MRA) problem involves reconstructing a signal from multiple noisy observations, each transformed by a random group element. In this paper, we focus on the group \(\mathrm{SO}(2)\) of in-plane rotations and…