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Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-10 Enyan Dai , Jie Chen

This work proposes a novel method through which local information about the target density can be used to construct an efficient importance sampler. The backbone of the proposed method is the Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling (IMIS)…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-22 Matteo Fasiolo , Flávio Eler de Melo , Simon Maskell

Normalizing flow (NF) has gained popularity over traditional maximum likelihood based methods due to its strong capability to model complex data distributions. However, the standard approach, which maps the observed data to a normal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Hanze Dong , Shizhe Diao , Weizhong Zhang , Tong Zhang

In Bayesian statistics, exploring high-dimensional multimodal posterior distributions poses major challenges for existing MCMC approaches. This paper introduces the Annealed Leap-Point Sampler (ALPS), which augments the target distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Nicholas G. Tawn , Matthew T. Moores , Hugo Queniat , Gareth O. Roberts

We present a computational framework for efficient learning, sampling, and distribution of general Bayesian posterior distributions. The framework leverages a machine learning approach for the construction of normalizing flows for the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2023-10-10 Yukari Yamauchi , Landon Buskirk , Pablo Giuliani , Kyle Godbey

Denoising generative models, such as diffusion and flow-based models, produce high-quality samples but require many denoising steps due to discretization error. Flow maps, which estimate the average velocity between timesteps, mitigate this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Kyungmin Lee , Sihyun Yu , Jinwoo Shin

This paper presents a novel non-Gaussian inference algorithm, Normalizing Flow iSAM (NF-iSAM), for solving SLAM problems with non-Gaussian factors and/or non-linear measurement models. NF-iSAM exploits the expressive power of neural…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-05-12 Qiangqiang Huang , Can Pu , Dehann Fourie , Kasra Khosoussi , Jonathan P. How , John J. Leonard

Modeling transformations between arbitrary data distributions is a fundamental scientific challenge, arising in applications like drug discovery and evolutionary simulation. While flow matching offers a natural framework for this task, its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Shiye Su , Yuhui Zhang , Linqi Zhou , Rajesh Ranganath , Serena Yeung-Levy

We tackle unsupervised anomaly detection (UAD), a problem of detecting data that significantly differ from normal data. UAD is typically solved by using density estimation. Recently, deep neural network (DNN)-based density estimators, such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-14 Masataka Yamaguchi , Yuma Koizumi , Noboru Harada

Coupling normalizing flows allow for fast sampling and density evaluation, making them the tool of choice for probabilistic modeling of physical systems. However, the standard coupling architecture precludes endowing flows that operate on…

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Graham Gibson

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

In this work, we consider the problem of training a generator from evaluations of energy functions or unnormalized densities. This is a fundamental problem in probabilistic inference, which is crucial for scientific applications such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Dongyeop Woo , Sungsoo Ahn

Bayesian deep learning counts on the quality of posterior distribution estimation. However, the posterior of deep neural networks is highly multi-modal in nature, with local modes exhibiting varying generalization performance. Given a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Bolian Li , Ruqi Zhang

Normalizing flows are an established approach for modelling complex probability densities through invertible transformations from a base distribution. However, the accuracy with which the target distribution can be captured by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-02 Harry Bevins , Will Handley , Thomas Gessey-Jones

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational methods for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows. An overarching motif of many Bayesian methods is that they…

Approximate Bayes Computations (ABC) are used for parameter inference when the likelihood function of the model is expensive to evaluate but relatively cheap to sample from. In particle ABC, an ensemble of particles in the product space of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-15 Carlo Albert , Hans R. Kuensch , Andreas Scheidegger

Computational methods for learning to sample from the Boltzmann distribution -- where the target distribution is known only up to an unnormalized energy function -- have advanced significantly recently. Due to the lack of explicit target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-26 Guan-Horng Liu , Jaemoo Choi , Yongxin Chen , Benjamin Kurt Miller , Ricky T. Q. Chen

The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) is a deterministic approach to Bayesian inference on latent Gaussian models (LGMs) and focuses on fast and accurate approximation of posterior marginals for the parameters in the models.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-03-05 Martin Outzen Berild , Sara Martino , Virgilio Gómez-Rubio , Håvard Rue

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable distributions and integrals with respect to them. The origin of IS dates from the early 1950s. In the last decades, the rise of the Bayesian paradigm…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-21 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino
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