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The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-08 Timothée Hornek , Sergio Potenciano Menci , Ivan Pavić

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Aleksei Kychkin , Georgios C. Chasparis

We propose an enhancement to wholesale electricity markets whereby the exposure of consumers to increasingly large and volatile consumer payments arising as a byproduct of volatile real-time net loads -- i.e., loads minus renewable outputs…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Daniel Bienstock , Yury Dvorkin , Cheng Guo , Robert Mieth , Jiayi Wang

Estimating generation costs from observed electricity market data is essential for market simulation, strategic bidding, and system planning. To that end, we model the relationship between generation costs and production schedules with a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-10 Matthias Pirlet , Adrien Bolland , Alexandre Huynen , Quentin Louveaux , Gilles Louppe , Damien Ernst

The marginal price of electricity traditionally depends on the dual variables associated with relevant optimization goals. Particularly, in the optimal power flow realm, prices represent the cost of supplying an additional unit of power at…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Kyri Baker

This paper studies the problem of stochastic dynamic pricing and energy management policy for electric vehicle (EV) charging service providers. In the presence of renewable energy integration and energy storage system, EV charging service…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-01-09 Chao Luo , Yih-Fang Huang , Vijay Gupta

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of forecasting on the interface of electrical engineering, statistics, computer science, and finance, which focuses on predicting prices in wholesale electricity markets for a whole spectrum…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-26 Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski , Jesus Lago , Grzegorz Marcjasz , Rafał Weron

In smart grid, a home appliance can adjust its power consumption level according to the realtime power price obtained from communication channels. Most studies on smart grid do not consider the cost of communications which cannot be ignored…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-03-11 Husheng Li , Robert C. Qiu

The intermittent nature of the renewable energies increases the operation costs of conventional generators. As the share of energy supplied by renewable sources increases, these costs also increase. In this paper, we quantify these costs by…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-26 Ashkan Zeinalzadeh , Donya Ghavidel , Vijay Gupta

Future electricity distribution grids will host a considerable share of the renewable energy sources needed for enforcing the energy transition. Demand side management mechanisms play a key role in the integration of such renewable energy…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-04-16 José Horta , Eitan Altman , Mathieu Caujolle , Daniel Kofman , David Menga

Electricity price prediction plays a vital role in energy storage system (ESS) management. Current prediction models focus on reducing prediction errors but overlook their impact on downstream decision-making. So this paper proposes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-02 Linwei Sang , Yinliang Xu , Huan Long , Qinran Hu , Hongbin Sun

Accurate short-term electricity price forecasting is crucial for strategically scheduling demand and generation bids in day-ahead markets. While data-driven techniques have shown considerable prowess in achieving high forecast accuracy in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Jilles De Blauwe , Mikael Amelin , Hussain Kazmi

Demand response provides utilities with a mechanism to share with end users the stochasticity resulting from the use of renewable sources. Pricing is accordingly used to reflect energy availability, to allocate such a limited resource to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-08 Andrea Monacchi , Wilfried Elmenreich

Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Yunzhong Qiu , Binzhu Li , Hao Wei , Shenglin Weng , Chen Wang , Zhongyi Pei , Mingsheng Long , Jianmin Wang

In the modern power market, electricity trading is an extremely competitive industry. More accurate price forecast is crucial to help electricity producers and traders make better decisions. In this paper, a novel method of convolutional…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-17 Hsu-Yung Cheng , Ping-Huan Kuo , Yamin Shen , Chiou-Jye Huang

The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-20 Noufel Frikha , Vincent Lemaire

In this paper, we formulate a method for minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost of electricity in two popular spot markets: {\it day-ahead} and {\it intra-day}, under the assumption that expectation value of unit prices…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-03 Naoya Yamaguchi , Maiya Hori , Yoshinari Ideguchi

This paper presents a dynamic pricing and energy management framework for electric vehicle (EV) charging service providers. To set the charging prices, the service providers faces three uncertainties: the volatility of wholesale electricity…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-01-10 Chao Luo , Yih-Fang Huang , Vijay Gupta

Due to the limited predictability of wind power and other stochastic generation, trading this energy in competitive electricity markets is challenging. This paper derives revenue-maximising and risk-constrained strategies for stochastic…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-31 Jethro Browell

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant challenges to power grid stability, primarily due to their inherent variability. A new opportunity for grid operation is the smart integration of electricity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Janik Pinter , Frederik Zahn , Maximilian Beichter , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer
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