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This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-30 Naser Rostamni , Tarik A. Rashid

Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of generating units in the smart grid. Variable energy generations, particularly from wind and solar energy resources, are witnessing a rapid boost, and, it is anticipated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-04-07 Mohamed Abuella , Badrul Chowdhury

We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…

General Economics · Economics 2025-07-04 Jozef Barunik , Lubos Hanus

We present a novel approach to probabilistic electricity price forecasting which utilizes distributional neural networks. The model structure is based on a deep neural network that contains a so-called probability layer. The network's…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-29 Grzegorz Marcjasz , Michał Narajewski , Rafał Weron , Florian Ziel

Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-02 Michał Narajewski , Florian Ziel

With the rapid development of electricity markets, price volatility has significantly increased, making accurate forecasting crucial for power system operations and market decisions. Traditional linear models cannot capture the complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Xuanyi Zhao , Jiawen Ding , Xueting Huang , Yibo Zhang

The energy transition is profoundly reshaping electricity market dynamics. It makes it essential to understand how renewable energy generation actually impacts electricity prices, among all other market drivers. These insights are critical…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-22 Davide Cacciarelli , Pierre Pinson , Filip Panagiotopoulos , David Dixon , Lizzie Blaxland

In this paper we introduce the problem of dynamic pricing of power for smart-grid networks. This is studied within a network utility maximization (NUM) framework in a deterministic setting with a single provider, multiple users and a finite…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-03-20 Qingsi Wang , Mingyan Liu , Rahul Jain

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Runyao Yu , Julia Lin , Derek W. Bunn , Jochen Stiasny , Wentao Wang , Yujie Chen , Tara Esterl , Peter Palensky , Jochen L. Cremer

An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-09-25 Mario Mureddu , Hildegard Meyer-Ortmanns

Recent research finds that forecasting electricity prices is very relevant. In many applications, it might be interesting to predict daily electricity prices by using their own lags or renewable energy sources. However, the recent turmoil…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-21 Claudia Foroni , Francesco Ravazzolo , Luca Rossini

We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-21 Clemence Alasseur , Olivier Feron

This paper compares alternative univariate versus multivariate models, frequentist versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications, for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, both with and without renewable energy…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-11-13 Angelica Gianfreda , Francesco Ravazzolo , Luca Rossini

Energy price forecasting is a relevant yet hard task in the field of multi-step time series forecasting. In this paper we compare a well-known and established method, ARMA with exogenous variables with a relatively new technique Gradient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-24 Gergo Barta , Gyula Borbely , Gabor Nagy , Sandor Kazi , Tamas Henk

The recent energy crisis starting in 2021 led to record-high gas, coal, carbon and power prices, with electricity reaching up to 40 times the pre-crisis average. This had dramatic consequences for operational and risk management prompting…

Applications · Statistics 2024-08-27 Paul Ghelasi , Florian Ziel

Due to the liberalization of markets, the change in the energy mix and the surrounding energy laws, electricity research is a dynamically altering field with steadily changing challenges. One challenge especially for investment decisions is…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-12-27 Rick Steinert , Florian Ziel

Classical time series models have serious difficulties in modeling and forecasting the enormous fluctuations of electricity spot prices. Markov regime switch models belong to the most often used models in the electricity literature. These…

Applications · Statistics 2013-12-02 Dominik Liebl

Continuous integration of renewable energy sources into power networks is causing a paradigm shift in energy generation and distribution with regards to trading and control; the intermittent nature of renewable sources affects pricing of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-19 Pablo R. Baldivieso Monasterios , Nandor Verba , Euan A Morris , Thomas Morstyn , George. C , . Konstantopoulos , Elena Gaura , Stephen McArthur

As pressures to decarbonize the electricity grid increase, the grid edge is witnessing a rapid adoption of distributed and renewable generation. As a result, traditional methods for reactive power management and compensation may become…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-04 Adam Potter , Rabab Haider , Giulio Ferro , Michela Robba , Anuradha M. Annaswamy

In this study, we develop a theoretical model of strategic equilibrium bidding and price-setting behaviour by heterogeneous and boundedly rational electricity producers and a grid operator in a single electricity market under uncertain…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-04-27 Jobst Heitzig , Hildegard Meyer-Ortmanns , Sabine Auer