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In this paper analytic formulas for electricity derivatives are calculated. To this end, we assume that electricity spot prices follow a 3-regime Markov regime-switching model with independent spikes and drops and periodic transition…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-03-27 Joanna Janczura

This article addresses the residential energy cost optimization problem in smart grid. To date, most of the previous research only consider a partial aspect of the cost optimization problem. As a result, they fail to analyze scenarios when…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2015-05-06 Muhammad Raisul Alam , Marc St-Hilaire , Thomas Kunz

The transition from traditional power grids to smart grids, significant increase in the use of renewable energy sources, and soaring electricity prices has triggered a digital transformation of the energy infrastructure that enables new,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Carolina Fortuna , Gregor Cerar , Blaz Bertalanic , Andrej Campa , Mihael Mohorcic

Accurate power forecasting from renewable energy sources (RES) is crucial for integrating additional RES capacity into the power system and realizing sustainability goals. This work emphasizes the importance of integrating decentralized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-23 Carla Goncalves , Ricardo J. Bessa , Tiago Teixeira , Joao Vinagre

Accurate prediction of electricity day-ahead prices is essential in competitive electricity markets. Although stationary electricity-price forecasting techniques have received considerable attention, research on non-stationary methods is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Antonio Malpica-Morales , Miguel A. Duran-Olivencia , Serafim Kalliadasis

Accurately forecasting electricity price volatility is crucial for effective risk management and decision-making. Traditional forecasting models often fall short in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of electricity markets,…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Haochen Xue , Chenghao Liu , Chong Zhang , Yuxuan Chen , Angxiao Zong , Zhaodong Wu , Yulong Li , Jiayi Liu , Kaiyu Liang , Zhixiang Lu , Ruobing Li , Jionglong Su

Recently, the volatility associated with marginal prices has increased due to large scale integration of renewable generation. Price volatility is undesirable from a consumer perspective. To address this issue, we present a framework for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-11 Shantanu Chakraborty , Kyri Baker , Milos Cvetkovic , Remco Verzijlbergh , Zofia Lukszo

The field of electricity price forecasting has seen significant advances in the last years, including the development of new, more accurate forecast models. These models leverage statistical relationships in previously observed data to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Maria Margarida Mascarenhas , Hussain Kazmi

The rapid expansion of wind and solar energy leads to an increasing volatility in the electricity generation. Previous studies have shown that storage devices provide an opportunity to balance fluctuations in the power grid. An economical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-06 Lars Siemer , Wided Medjroubi

This work presents a methodology for forward electricity contract price projection based on market equilibrium and social welfare optimization. In the methodology supply and demand for forward contracts are produced in such a way that each…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-27 Mateus A. Cavaliere , Sergio Granville , Gerson C. Oliveira , Mario V. F. Pereira

Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian…

Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Alexandru-Victor Andrei , Georg Velev , Filip-Mihai Toma , Daniel Traian Pele , Stefan Lessmann

Data centers (DCs) are emerging as large, geographically distributed, controllable loads whose participation in electricity markets can significantly affect grid operation, especially when cloud platforms shift workloads across sites to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-09 Shijie Pan , Zaint A. Alexakis , Charalambos Konstantinou

Coordination of distributed energy resources is critical for electricity grid management. Although nodal pricing schemes can mitigate congestion and voltage deviations, the resulting prices are not necessarily equitable. In this work, we…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-12-15 Emmanuel Balogun , Sonia Martin , Anthony Degleris , Ram Rajagopal

The charging load from Electric vehicles (EVs) is modeled as deferrable load, meaning that the power consumption can be shifted to different time windows to achieve various grid objectives. In local community scenarios, EVs are considered…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2018-02-06 Bin Wang , Dai Wang , Cy Chan , Rongxin Yin , Doug Black

This paper focuses on price-based residential demand response implemented through dynamic adjustments of electricity prices during DR events. It extends existing DR models to a stochastic framework in which customer response is represented…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-18 Guido Cavraro , Andrey Bernstein , Emiliano Dall'Anese

We present modeling and analysis of day-ahead spatio-temporal energy markets in which each competitive aggregator aims at making the highest profit by managing a complex mixture of different energy resources, such as conventional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Takayuki Ishizaki , Masakazu Koike , Nobuyuki Yamaguchi , Yuzuru Ueda , Jun-ichi Imura

The roll-out of stochastic renewable energy sources (RES) undermines the efficiency of power system and market operations. This paper proposes an approach to derive electricity prices that internalize RES stochasticity. We leverage a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-31 Robert Mieth , Jip Kim , Yury Dvorkin

The large variability of renewable power sources is a central challenge in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Electricity markets are central for the coordination of electric power generation. These markets rely evermore on…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-07 Chengyuan Han , Hannes Hilger , Eva Mix , Philipp C. Böttcher , Mark Reyers , Christian Beck , Dirk Witthaut , Leonardo Rydin Gorjão

The prediction of electrical power in combined cycle power plants is a key challenge in the electrical power and energy systems field. This power output can vary depending on environmental variables, such as temperature, pressure, and…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-08-06 Jesus L. Lobo , Igor Ballesteros , Izaskun Oregi , Javier Del Ser