Related papers: Extending the Range of Robust PCE Inflation Measur…
Timely monetary policy decision-making requires timely core inflation measures. We create a new core inflation series that is explicitly designed to succeed at that goal. Precisely, we introduce the Assemblage Regression, a generalized…
This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…
This paper re-examines the empirical Phillips curve (PC) model and its usefulness in the context of medium-term inflation forecasting. A latent variable Phillips curve hypothesis is formulated and tested using 3,968 randomly generated…
We explore constraints on various forms for the effective potential during inflation based upon a statistical comparison between inflation-generated fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background temperature and the COBE DMR results. Fits…
We measure the Euro Area (EA) output gap and potential output using a non-stationary dynamic factor model estimated on a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. Our results indicate that, between 2012 and 2024, the EA…
Economic indicators such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) have frequently used in predicting future economic wealth for financial policy makers of respective country. Most central banks, on guidelines of research studies, have recently adopted…
Last year we argued that if slow-roll inflation followed the decay of a false vacuum in a large landscape, the steepening of the scalar potential between the inflationary plateau and the barrier generically leads to a potentially observable…
Measures of inflation uncertainty and directional risk derived from higher moments of forecast distributions are contaminated by the first moment, but in distinct ways. Using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional…
This paper introduces a new approach for estimating core inflation indicators based on common factors across a broad range of price indices. Specifically, by utilizing procedures for detecting multiple regimes in high-dimensional factor…
We explore constraints on various forms for the effective potential during inflation based upon a statistical comparison between inflation-generated fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background temperature and the COBE DMR results. Fits…
Forecasts of product demand are essential for short- and long-term optimization of logistics and production. Thus, the most accurate prediction possible is desirable. In order to optimally train predictive models, the deviation of the…
Forecasting consumer price index (CPI) inflation is of paramount importance for both academics and policymakers at the central banks. This study introduces a filtered ensemble wavelet neural network (FEWNet) to forecast CPI inflation, which…
Very small mean curvature is a robust prediction of inflation worth rigorous checking. Since current constraints are derived from determinations of the angular-diameter distance to the CMB last-scattering surface, which is also affected by…
We re-estimate statistical properties and predictive power of a set of Phillips curves, which are expressed as linear and lagged relationships between the rates of inflation, unemployment, and change in labour force. For France, several…
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
In this paper, we provide non-averaged and transient performance guarantees for recently developed, tube-based robust economic model predictive control (MPC) schemes. In particular, we consider both tube-based MPC schemes with and without…
We conduct a model-independent analysis of temporal features during inflation in the large-scale CMB temperature power spectrum allowing for the possibility of non-negligible tensor contributions. Of 20 principal components of the…
In this work, we examine cosmological constraints on models of composite inflation based on the slow-roll approximation by using the recent Planck measurement. We compare the spectral index of curvature perturbation (and its running) and…
Motivated by Planck confirmation of an anomalously low value of the CMB temperature fluctuations up to multipole $\ell<40$, we in this paper try to explain such feature by investigating case of punctuated inflation scenario. This form of…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…