Related papers: Extending the Range of Robust PCE Inflation Measur…
The spectrum of primordial fluctuations from inflation can be obtained using a mathematically controlled, and systematically extendable, uniform approximation. Closed-form expressions for power spectra and spectral indices may be found…
Growth-at-Risk has recently become a key measure of macroeconomic tail-risk, which has seen it be researched extensively. Surprisingly, the same cannot be said for Inflation-at-Risk where both tails, deflation and high inflation, are of key…
The original SCR theory proposed that inflation has two distinct expressions: circulation inflation, measured by rising transaction prices, and reservation inflation, measured by the rising real weight of monetary symbols, debt contracts,…
Electricity price forecasts are typically evaluated using accuracy measures such as RMSE and MAE, although these metrics often fail to reflect their economic value in operational decisions. This paper investigates which statistical…
A robust adaptive model predictive control (MPC) algorithm is presented for linear, time invariant systems with unknown dynamics and subject to bounded measurement noise. The system is characterized by an impulse response model, which is…
We investigate inflationary scenarios driven by a class of potentials which are similar in form to those that arise in certain minimal supersymmetric extensions of the standard model. We find that these potentials allow a brief period of…
The ability to test and constrain theories of cosmic inflation will advance substantially over the next decade. Key data sources include cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements and observations of the distribution of matter at…
We examine the choice of scale at which constraints on inflationary observables are presented. We describe an implementation of the hierarchy of inflationary consistency equations which ensures that they remain enforced on different scales,…
Using a principal component (PC) basis that accommodates order unity features in the slow roll parameters as fine as 1/10 of a decade across more than 2 decades of the inflationary expansion, we test slow roll and single field inflation…
We report forecast constraints on warm inflation in the light of future cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys, with data expected to be available in the coming decade. These observations could finally give us the missing information…
We propose a new model for the joint evolution of the European inflation rate, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for…
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…
Rational respondents to economic surveys may report as a point forecast any measure of the central tendency of their (possibly latent) predictive distribution, for example the mean, median, mode, or any convex combination thereof. We…
We characterize optimal monetary policy when policy endogenously moves risk premia through redistribution across agents who differ in their willingness to bear risk. The analytical core is Marginal Risk Capacity, the covariance of monetary…
A generic non-minimal coupling can push any higher-order terms of the scalar potential sufficiently far out in field space to yield observationally viable plateau inflation. We provide analytic and numerical evidence that this generically…
We consider the running of the spectral index as a probe of both inflation itself, and of the overall evolution of the very early universe. Surveying a collection of simple single field inflationary models, we confirm that the magnitude of…
We provide the latest constraints on the power spectra of both scalar and tensor perturbations from the CMB data (including \textit{Planck}~2015, BICEP2 \& \textit{Keck Array} experiments) and the new BAO scales from SDSS-III BOSS…
We develop a medium-size semi-structural time series model of inflation dynamics that is consistent with the view - often expressed by central banks - that three components are important: a trend anchored by long-run expectations, a…
Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) is an important probe for understanding the inflationary era of the Universe. We consider the Perturbed Power Law (PPL) model of inflation which is a soft deviation from Power Law (PL) inflationary model.…
This paper investigates how institutional rigidities shape inflation persistence in transition economies, focusing on labor market institutions and exchange rate regimes. Using a large panel of transition countries over the period…