Related papers: Extending the Range of Robust PCE Inflation Measur…
Slow-roll inflation may simultaneously solve the horizon problem and generate a near scale-free fluctuation spectrum P(k). These two processes are intimately connected via the initiation and duration of the inflationary phase. But a recent…
This paper revisits the classic instrument choice problem in a setting with consumption externalities, through the lens of robust mechanism design. A regulator can implement any incentive-compatible policy but is uncertain about how…
We analyse the implications for inflationary models of the cosmic microwave background (cmb) anisotropy measured by COBE. Vacuum fluctuations during inflation generate an adiabatic density perturbation, and also gravitational waves. The…
We provide novel systematic cross-country evidence that the link between domestic labour markets and CPI inflation has weakened considerably in advanced economies during recent decades. The central estimate is that the short-run…
The recent BICEP2 B-mode polarization determination of an inflationary tensor-scalar ratio $r=0.2^{+0.07}_{-0.05}$ is in tension with simple scale-free models of inflation due to a lack of a corresponding low multipole excess in the…
The implications of the WMAP (Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe) third year data for inflation are investigated using both the slow-roll approximation and an exact numerical integration of the inflationary power spectra including a…
We confront the warm inflation observational predictions directly with the latest CMB data. We focus on a linear temperature (T) dissipative coefficient combined with the simplest model of inflation, a quartic chaotic potential. Although…
The aim of the present paper is to provide criteria for a central bank of how to choose among different monetary-policy rules when caring about a number of policy targets such as the output gap and expected inflation. Special attention is…
We revisit the constraints on inflation models by using the current cosmological observations involving the latest local measurement of the Hubble constant ($H_{0} = 73.00\pm 1.75$ km s $^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$). We constrain the primordial power…
We describe models of single-field inflation with small and sharp step features in the potential (and sound speed) of the inflaton field, in the context of the Effective Field Theory of Inflation. This approach allows us to study the…
We develop general criteria to construct unified frameworks for inflation and quintessence which employ a unique scalar field to drive both. By using such a minimal theoretical framework we avoid having to fine-tune couplings and…
Purchase data from retail chains provide proxy measures of private household expenditure on items that are the most troublesome to collect in the traditional expenditure survey. Due to the sheer amount of proxy data, the bias due to…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE)…
Since the beginning of this century the Colombian monetary authority has conducted monetary policy under a strategy based on setting targets for interest rate and inflation, while allowing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in domestic…
How should central banks optimally aggregate sectoral inflation rates in the presence of imperfect labor mobility across sectors? We study this issue in a two-sector New-Keynesian model and show that a lower degree of sectoral labor…
Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply than can result in price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. The objectives of this paper were to develop economic models to (1)…
Probing correlations among short and long-wavelength cosmological fluctuations is known to be decisive for deepening the current understanding of inflation at the microphysical level. Spectral distortions of the CMB can be caused by…
We construct a model of inflation based on a low-energy effective theory of spontaneously broken global scale invariance. This provides a shift symmetry that protects the inflaton potential from quantum corrections. Since the underlying…
I discuss the current status of inflationary cosmology in light of the recent WMAP 3-year data release. The basic predictions of inflation are all supported by the data. Inflation also makes predictions which have not been well tested by…
The latest Planck results are in excellent agreement with the theoretical expectations predicted from standard normal inflation based on slow-roll approximation which assumes equation-of-state $\omega \geq-1$. In this work, we study the…