English
Related papers

Related papers: The tropical geometry of causal inference for extr…

200 papers

In this paper, we provide finite sample results to assess the consistency of Generalized Pareto regression trees, as tools to perform extreme value regression. The results that we provide are obtained from concentration inequalities, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-21 Sébastien Farkas , Antoine Heranval , Olivier Lopez , Maud Thomas

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-14 Massimiliano Ignaccolo , Marco Marani

The impact of an extreme climate event depends strongly on its geographical scale. Max-stable processes can be used for the statistical investigation of climate extremes and their spatial dependencies on a continuous area. Most existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-14 Justus Contzen , Thorsten Dickhaus , Gerrit Lohmann

Classical methods for quantile regression fail in cases where the quantile of interest is extreme and only few or no training data points exceed it. Asymptotic results from extreme value theory can be used to extrapolate beyond the range of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Nicola Gnecco , Edossa Merga Terefe , Sebastian Engelke

Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…

This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-04 Gianluca Rosso

This thesis delves into the geometry of abstract tropical curves, exploring their complete linear system and associated tropical submodules. We establish a lower bound on the dimension of tropical submodules in terms of the Baker-Norine…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2025-06-27 Matthew Dupraz

We reconcile the discrepancy between the complex and tropical counts of some enumerative problems reducing to positive characteristic. Each problem that we consider suggests a prime with special behaviour. Modulo this prime, the solutions…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2020-04-03 Marco Pacini , Damiano Testa

This paper surveys {\it tropical modifications}, which have already become a folklore in tropical geometry. Tropical modifications are used in tropical intersection theory, tropical Hodge theory, and in the study of singularities. They…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2024-05-14 Nikita Kalinin

In this work, we introduce a Tropical Axial Attention neural reasoning architecture that replaces vanilla softmax dot-product attention with max-plus operators, inducing a piecewise-linear structure aligned with dynamic programming…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-15 Chris Teska , Kurt Pasque , Ruriko Yoshida , Baran Hashemi

We continue, in this second article, the study of the the algebraic tools which play a role in tropical algebra. We especially examine here the polynomial algebras over idempotent semi-fields. this work is motivated by the development of…

Rings and Algebras · Mathematics 2008-09-02 Dominique Castella

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius

Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-11-05 Amanda Gentzel , Dan Garant , David Jensen

We propose an algebraic geometric framework to study the expressivity of linear activation neural networks. A particular quantity of neural networks that has been actively studied is the number of linear regions, which gives a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Paul Lezeau , Thomas Walker , Yueqi Cao , Shiv Bhatia , Anthea Monod

We propose a new method to estimate a root-directed spanning tree from extreme data. A prominent example is a river network, to be discovered from extreme flow measured at a set of stations. Our new algorithm utilizes qualitative aspects of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-29 Ngoc Mai Tran , Johannes Buck , Claudia Klüppelberg

Statistical methods for inference on spatial extremes of large datasets are yet to be developed. Motivated by standard dimension reduction techniques used in spatial statistics, we propose an approach based on empirical basis functions to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-02 Samuel A. Morris , Brian J. Reich , Emeric Thibaud

Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-13 Lindsey Dietz , Sakshi Arya , Vishal Subedi , Auroop R. Ganguly , Snigdhansu Chatterjee

Extreme value theory for univariate and low-dimensional observations has been explored in considerable detail, but the field is still in an early stage regarding high-dimensional settings. This paper focuses on H\"usler-Reiss models, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-17 Johannes Lederer , Marco Oesting

We introduce tropical complexes, as an enrichment of the dual complex of a degeneration with additional data from non-transverse intersection numbers. We define cycles, divisors, and linear equivalence on tropical complexes, analogous both…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2019-09-13 Dustin Cartwright

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-12-27 Francesco Ragone , Jeroen Wouters , Freddy Bouchet