English

Estimating a Directed Tree for Extremes

Machine Learning 2023-12-29 v4 Machine Learning Applications Methodology

Abstract

We propose a new method to estimate a root-directed spanning tree from extreme data. A prominent example is a river network, to be discovered from extreme flow measured at a set of stations. Our new algorithm utilizes qualitative aspects of a max-linear Bayesian network, which has been designed for modelling causality in extremes. The algorithm estimates bivariate scores and returns a root-directed spanning tree. It performs extremely well on benchmark data and new data. We prove that the new estimator is consistent under a max-linear Bayesian network model with noise. We also assess its strengths and limitations in a small simulation study.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2102.06197,
  title  = {Estimating a Directed Tree for Extremes},
  author = {Ngoc Mai Tran and Johannes Buck and Claudia Klüppelberg},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2102.06197},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

Extensive Revision. 54 pages, 26 Figures

R2 v1 2026-06-23T23:04:52.762Z