Related papers: A Data-Driven Approach for Discovering the Most Pr…
We investigate the maximum caliber variational principle as an inference algorithm used to predict dynamical properties of complex nonequilibrium, stationary, statistical systems in the presence of incomplete information. Specifically, we…
Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
We present a new computational approach, Action-CSA, to sample multiple reaction pathways with fixed initial and final states through global optimization of the Onsager-Machlup action using the conformational space annealing method. This…
We present a one-way shooting algorithm for transition path sampling that accepts every proposed trajectory, yet samples the correct transition path ensemble for systems with overdamped stochastic dynamics. The method is based on two key…
There is a reasonable possibility that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is relevant to compute probabilities and pathways of noise-induced transitions between the stable…
We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…
There is strong evidence that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its…
Analyzing when noisy trajectories, in the two dimensional plane, of a stochastic dynamical system exit the basin of attraction of a fixed point is specifically challenging when a periodic orbit forms the boundary of the basin of attraction.…
We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…
We analyse biased ensembles of trajectories for the random-field Ising model on a fully-connected lattice, which is described exactly by mean-field theory. By coupling the activity of the system to a dynamical biasing field, we find a range…
We consider the noise-induced transitions in the randomly perturbed discrete logistic map from a linearly stable periodic orbit consisting of T periodic points. The traditional large deviation theory and asymptotic analysis for small noise…
Many processes in nature such as conformal changes in biomolecules and clusters of interacting particles, genetic switches, mechanical or electromechanical oscillators with added noise, and many others are modeled using stochastic…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element of the climate system. The current estimate of the global warming threshold for the onset of an AMOC collapse is +4.0C (uncertainty range 1.4-8C). However, such a…
We investigate the most probable phase portrait (MPPP) of a stochastic single-species model with the Allee effect using the non-local Fokker-Planck equation. This stochastic model is driven by non-Gaussian as well as Gaussian noise, and it…
We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces…
Reservoir computing has been shown to be a useful framework for predicting critical transitions of a dynamical system if the bifurcation parameter is also provided as an input. Its utility is significant because in real-world scenarios, the…
Determining changes in global temperature and precipitation that may indicate climate change is complicated by annual variations. One approach for finding potential climate change indicators is to train a model that predicts the year from…