Related papers: A Data-Driven Approach for Discovering the Most Pr…
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on…
Brownian motion on manifolds with non-trivial diffusion coefficient can be constructed by stochastic development of Euclidean Brownian motions using the fiber bundle of linear frames. We provide a comprehensive study of paths for such…
Given two metastable states A and B of a biomolecular system, the problem is to calculate the likely paths of the transition from A to B. Such a calculation is more informative and more manageable if done for a reduced set of collective…
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…
The time evolution of many physical, chemical, and biological systems can be modelled by stochastic transitions between the minima of the potential energy surface describing the system of interest. We show that in cases where there are two…
A transition to a low-carbon electricity supply is crucial to limit the impacts of climate change. Reducing carbon emissions could help prevent the world from reaching a tipping point, where runaway emissions are likely. Runaway emissions…
Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
Human activity is leading to changes in the mean and variability of climatic parameters in most locations around the world. The changing mean has received considerable attention from scientists and climate policy makers. However, recent…
Critical transitions describe sudden changes in the state of an ecosystem. In classical bifurcation theory, such transitions occur when the value of a parameter exceeds a threshold (``bifurcation") value. More recently, critical transitions…
Tipping points (TP) are abrupt transitions between metastable states in complex systems, most often described by a bifurcation or crisis of a multistable system induced by a slowly changing control parameter. An avenue for predicting TPs in…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
We report the study of sudden transitions or tipping in a collection of systems induced due to multiplexing with another network of systems. The emergent dynamics of oscillators on one layer can undergo a sudden transition to steady state…
We propose a new theoretical method to describe the monitored dynamics of bosonic many-body systems based on the concept of the most likely trajectory. We show how such trajectory can be identified from the probability distribution of…
Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…
Critical transitions and tipping phenomena between two meta-stable states in stochastic dynamical systems are a significant scientific issue. In this work, we expand the methodology of identifying the most probable transition pathway…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
We propose a new Monte Carlo method for efficiently sampling trajectories with fixed initial and final conditions in a system with discrete degrees of freedom. The method can be applied to any stochastic process with local interactions,…
We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous…