Related papers: A systematic procedure for incorporating separable…
The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…
This research presents an advanced fractional-order compartmental model designed to delve into the complexities of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, specifically accounting for the influence of environmental pathogens on disease spread. By…
This article presents a comprehensive study of the continuous McKendrick model, which serves as a foundational framework in population dynamics and epidemiology. The model is formulated through partial differential equations that describe…
We study the impact of contact heterogeneity on epidemic dynamics. A system characterized by multiple susceptible populations is considered. The description of the spread of an infectious disease is obtained through the study of a system of…
We introduce and analyze coupled, multi-strain epidemic models designed to simulate the emergence and dissemination of mutant (e.g. drug-resistant) pathogen strains. In particular, we investigate the mathematical and biological properties…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms represent a suite of robust computational methodologies utilized for state estimation and parameter inference within dynamical systems, particularly in real-time or online environments where data…
In this paper, we consider a compartmental SIRS epidemic model with asymptomatic infection and seasonal succession, which is a periodic discontinuous differential system. The basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ is defined and valuated…
In this article, we construct a numerical method for a stochastic version of the Susceptible Infected Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, expressed by a suitable stochastic differential equation (SDE), by using the semi-discrete method to a…
Compartmental models are valuable tools for investigating infectious diseases. Researchers building such models typically begin with a simple structure where compartments correspond to individuals with different epidemiological statuses,…
This paper proposes a sequential ensemble methodology for epidemic modeling that integrates discrete-time Hawkes processes (DTHP) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) models. Motivated by the need for accurate and reliable…
We present a Boltzmann equation for mixtures of three species of particles reducing to the Kermack-McKendrick (SIR) equations for the time-evolution of the density of infected agents in an isolated population. The kinetic model is…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
We present an analysis of six deterministic models for epidemic spreading. The evolution of the number of individuals of each class is given by ordinary differential equations of the first order in time, which are set up by using the laws…
In this paper, we explore the solvability and the optimal control problem for a compartmental model based on reaction-diffusion partial differential equations describing a transmissible disease. The nonlinear model takes into account the…
The shape of an epidemic wave in simple epidemic models applies to a homogeneous distribution of infected people in the population. In large inhomogeneous systems, at country-scale for instance, the wave shape is similar except for the…
We consider multiple diseases spreading in a static Configuration Model network. We make standard assumptions that infection transmits from neighbor to neighbor at a disease-specific rate and infected individuals recover at a…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed a monotonic decay needs a…
In this work, we introduce a quantum-inspired epidemic model to study the dynamics of an infectious disease in a population divided into compartments. By treating the healthy population as a large reservoir, we construct a framework based…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…