Related papers: A systematic procedure for incorporating separable…
The spread of disease on complex networks has attracted widely attention in the physics community. Recent works have demonstrated that heterogeneous degree and weight distributions have a significant influence on the epidemic dynamics. In…
We study an epidemic model for a constant population by taking into account four compartments of the individuals characterizing their states of health. Each individual is in one of the compartments susceptible (S); incubated - infected yet…
Yet often neglected, dynamical interdependencies between concomitant contagion processes can alter their intrinsic equilibria and bifurcations. A particular case of interest for disease control is the emergence of explosive transitions in…
The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…
Given a heterogeneous time-series sample, the objective is to find points in time (called change points) where the probability distribution generating the data has changed. The data are assumed to have been generated by arbitrary unknown…
Epidemic disease spreading is conventionally often modelled and analyzed by means of rate and diffusion equations, following the paradigms of well-controlled chemical reactions and diffusive dynamics in a test tube. Yet, serious worries…
Over the past several decades there has been a proliferation of epidemiological models with ordinary derivatives replaced by fractional derivatives in an an-hoc manner. These models may be mathematically interesting but their relevance is…
Obtaining accurate forecasts for the evolution of epidemic outbreaks from deterministic compartmental models represents a major theoretical challenge. Recently, it has been shown that these models typically exhibit trajectories' degeneracy,…
Especially in lattice structured populations, homogeneous mixing represents an inadequate assumption. Various improvements upon the ordinary pair approximation based on a number of assumptions concerning the higher-order correlations have…
The susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model is analyzed through a degree-based mean-field approach. In this work, a mitigation factor is introduced in the probability of finding an infected individual following an edge. This…
We consider a multi-species reaction-diffusion system that arises in epidemiology to describe the spread of several strains, or variants, of a disease in a population. Our model is a natural spatial, multi-species, extension of the…
Modelling epidemics via classical population-based models suffers from shortcomings that so-called individual-based models are able to overcome, as they are able to take heterogeneity features into account, such as super-spreaders, and…
We study the critical effect of an intermittent social distancing strategy on the propagation of epidemics in adaptive complex networks. We characterize the effect of our strategy in the framework of the susceptible-infected-recovered…
In this article we suggest a new statistical approach considering survival heterogeneity as a breakpoint model in an ordered sequence of time to event variables. The survival responses need to be ordered according to a numerical covariate.…
Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that…
A resampling scheme provides a way to switch low-weight particles for sequential Monte Carlo with higher-weight particles representing the objective distribution. The less the variance of the weight distribution is, the more concentrated…
This study investigates the spatial integration of agent-based models (ABMs) and compartmental models for infectious disease modeling, presenting a novel hybrid approach and examining its implications. ABMs offer detailed insights by…
This paper presents a probabilistic model for reasoning about the state of a system as it changes over time, both due to exogenous and endogenous influences. Our target domain is a class of medical prediction problems that are neither so…