Related papers: COVID-19 Modeling Based on Real Geographic and Pop…

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…

We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a Stay-at-Home order and scenarios for its eventual release. We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and…

The rapid spread of COVID-19 in the United States has imposed a major threat to public health, the real economy, and human well-being. With the absence of effective vaccines, the preventive actions of social distancing and travel reduction…

As COVID-19 is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A main challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic calls for a multi-faceted public health response comprising complementary interventions to control the spread of the disease while vaccines and therapies are developed. Many of these interventions need to be…

While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…

In late 2019, COVID-19, a severe respiratory disease, emerged, and since then, the world has been facing a deadly pandemic caused by it. This ongoing pandemic has had a significant effect on different aspects of societies. The uncertainty…

Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to…

In this study, we present a new epidemiological model, with contamination from confirmed and unreported. We also compute equilibria and study their stability without intervention strategies. Optimal control theory has proven to be a…

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is…

The spread of COVID-19 and ensuing containment measures have accentuated the profound interdependence among nations or regions. This has been particularly evident in tourism, one of the sectors most affected by uncoordinated mobility…

The spread of COVID-19 has been thwarted in most countries through non-pharmaceutical interventions. In particular, the most effective measures in this direction have been the stay-at-home and closure strategies of businesses and schools.…

A configuration model for epidemic spread, based on a scale-free network, is introduced. We obtain the analytical solutions describing both unstable and stable dynamics of the epidemic spreading, and demonstrate how these regimes can…

A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…

We investigate patterns of COVID-19 mortality across 20 Italian regions and their association with mobility, positivity, and socio-demographic, infrastructural and environmental covariates. Notwithstanding limitations in accuracy and…

Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…

Touristic cities will suffer from COVID-19 emergency because of its economic impact on their communities. The first emergency phases involved a wide closure of such areas to support "social distancing" measures (i.e. travels limitation;…

The COVID-19 pandemic considerably affects public health systems around the world. The lack of knowledge about the virus, the extension of this phenomenon, and the speed of the evolution of the infection are all factors that highlight the…

We present a compartmental SEIRD model aimed at forecasting hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 outbreak. The model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model…

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect communities around the world. To date, almost 6 million people have died as a consequence of COVID-19, and more than one-quarter of a billion people are estimated to have been infected…