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The evacuation of the population from flood-affected regions is a non-structural measure to mitigate flood hazards. Shelters used for this purpose usually accommodate a large number of flood evacuees for a temporary period. Floods during…
The Kelly criterion provides a general framework for optimizing the growth rate of an investment portfolio over time by maximizing the expected logarithmic utility of wealth. However, the optimality condition of the Kelly criterion is…
The global balance is a well-known indicator of the behavior of a signed network. Recent literature has introduced the concept of local balance as a measure of the contribution of a single node to the overall balance of the network. In the…
As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and…
As observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, high-income countries, such as the U.S., may exhibit vaccine nationalism during a pandemic: stockpiling doses of vaccine for their own citizens and being reluctant to distribute doses of the vaccine…
This paper tackles the problem of mitigating catastrophic risk (which is risk with very low frequency but very high severity) in the context of a sequential decision making process. This problem is particularly challenging due to the…
The question of how to stabilize financial systems has attracted considerable attention since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Recently, Beale et al. ("Individual versus systemic risk and the regulator's dilemma", Proc Natl Acad…
Optimal reinsurance when Value at Risk and expected surplus is balanced through their ratio is studied, and it is demonstrated how results for risk-adjusted surplus can be utilized. Simplifications for large portfolios are derived, and this…
Political polarization can be beneficial to competing political parties. I study how electoral competition itself generates incentives to polarize voters, even when parties are ex ante identical and motivated purely by political power,…
Fragmentation of expensive resources, e.g., spectrum for wireless services, between providers can introduce inefficiencies in resource utilisation and worsen overall system performance. In such cases, resource pooling between independent…
Conditional risk minimization arises in high-stakes decisions where risk must be assessed in light of side information, such as stressed economic conditions, specific customer profiles, or other contextual covariates. Constructing reliable…
Flooding is one of the most destructive and costly natural disasters, and climate changes would further increase risks globally. This work presents a novel multimodal machine learning approach for multi-year global flood risk prediction,…
Reinsurance optimization is a cornerstone of solvency and capital management, yet traditional approaches often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions and static program designs. We propose a hybrid framework that combines…
More than half of the world's population now lives in urban environments, which concentrate services and infrastructure to satisfy the material needs of a growing number of inhabitants. The interdependencies between physical infrastructure…
For the past two decades investors have observed long memory and highly correlated behavior of asset classes that does not fit into the framework of Modern Portfolio Theory. Custom correlation and standard deviation estimators consider…
Providing commons in the risky world is crucial for human survival, however, suffers more from the "free-riding" problem. Here, we proposed a solution that limits the access of the resource to an agent and tested its efficiency with a novel…
The so called "globalization" process (i.e. the inexorable integration of markets, currencies, nation-states, technologies and the intensification of consciousness of the world as a whole) has a behavior exactly equivalent to a system that…
Addressing climate change effectively requires more than cataloguing the number of policies in place; it calls for tools that can reveal their thematic priorities and their tangible impacts on development outcomes. Existing assessments…
As governments race to implement new climate adaptation policies that prepare for more frequent flooding, they must seek policies that are effective for all communities and uphold climate justice. This requires evaluating policies not only…
Assessing climate risk and its potential impacts on our cities and economies is of fundamental importance. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and storm surges can lead to catastrophic damages. We propose a flexible approach…