Related papers: Increasing countries financial resilience through …
We model the spreading of a crisis by constructing a global economic network and applying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with a variable probability of infection. The probability of infection depends on the strength…
he evaluation of the impact of actions undertaken is essential in management. This paper assesses the impact of efforts considered to mitigate risk and create safe environments on a global scale. We measure this impact by looking at the…
As climate change intensifies, the urgency for accurate global-scale disaster predictions grows. This research presents a novel multimodal disaster prediction framework, combining weather statistics, satellite imagery, and textual insights.…
As the world marked the midterm of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, many countries are still struggling to monitor their climate and disaster risk because of the expensive large-scale survey of the distribution of…
We consider the problem of optimal risk sharing in a pool of cooperative agents. We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the certainty equivalents and risk premia associated with the Pareto optimal risk sharing contract as the pool expands.…
Flooding is the world's most costly type of natural disaster in terms of both economic losses and human causalities. A first and essential procedure towards flood monitoring is based on identifying the area most vulnerable to flooding,…
The financial industry should be involved in mitigating the risk of downturns in the financial wellbeing indices around the world by implementing well-developed financial tools such as insurance instruments on the underlying wellbeing…
The escalating frequency and severity of natural disasters, exacerbated by climate change, underscore the critical role of insurance in facilitating recovery and promoting investments in risk reduction. This work introduces a novel Adaptive…
Physics-based climate projections using general circulation models are essential for assessing future risks, but their coarse resolution limits regional decision-making. Statistical downscaling can efficiently add detail, yet many methods…
Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be…
We show that pooling countries across a panel dimension to macroeconomic data can improve by a statistically significant margin the generalization ability of structural, reduced form, and machine learning (ML) methods to produce…
This paper introduces a novel method for estimating material flows, with a focus on tracing phosphate flows from mining countries to those using phosphate in agricultural production. Our approach integrates data on phosphate rock…
Driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and chronic climate threats, we investigate the impact of physical climate risk on global equity portfolios. By employing a panel regression analysis on sectoral returns,…
Coalition forming is investigated among countries, which are coupled with short range interactions, under the influence of external fields produced by the existence of global alliances. The model rests on the natural model of coalition…
The evaluation of a multifaceted program against extreme poverty in different developing countries gave encouraging results, but with important heterogeneity between countries. This master thesis proposes to study this heterogeneity with a…
When do multinationals show resilience during natural disasters? To answer this, we develop a simple model in which foreign multinationals and local firms in the host country are interacted through input-output linkages. When natural…
The latest financial crisis has painfully revealed the dangers arising from a globally interconnected financial system. Conventional approaches based on the notion of the existence of equilibrium and those which rely on statistical…
One of the findings of the recent literature is that the 2008 financial crisis caused reduction in international diversification benefits. To fully understand the possible potential from diversification, we build an empirical model which…
Floods affected more than 2 billion people worldwide from 1998 to 2017 and their occurrence is expected to increase due to climate warming, population growth and rapid urbanization. Recent approaches for understanding the resilience of…
Recent attempts at cooperating on climate change mitigation highlight the limited efficacy of large-scale agreements, when commitment to mitigation is costly and initially rare. Bottom-up approaches using region-specific mitigation…