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By their very nature, rare event probabilities are expensive to compute; they are also delicate to estimate as their value strongly depends on distributional assumptions on the model parameters. Hence, understanding the sensitivity of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-28 Michael Merritt , Alen Alexanderian , Pierre Gremaud

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Justin Finkel , Paul A. O'Gorman

In many mobile health interventions, treatments should only be delivered in a particular context, for example when a user is currently stressed, walking or sedentary. Even in an optimal context, concerns about user burden can restrict which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-04 Sabina Tomkins , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy

Since several years, the fragility of global supply chains (GSCs) is at historically high levels. In the same time, the landscape of hybrid threats is expanding; new forms of hybrid threats create different types of uncertainties. This…

General Economics · Economics 2022-12-22 d'Artis Kancs

We have witnessed and experienced increasing compound extreme events resulting from simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple events in a changing climate. In addition to a growing demand for a clearer explanation of compound risks…

Lending pools are decentralized applications which allow mutually untrusted users to lend and borrow crypto-assets. These applications feature complex, highly parametric incentive mechanisms to equilibrate the loan market. This complexity…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-12-25 Massimo Bartoletti , James Hsin-yu Chiang , Alberto Lluch-Lafuente

The PCL framework provides a comprehensive climate risk management approach grounded in the assessment of societal values of financial and non-financial loss tolerability. The framework optimizes response action across three main clusters,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-15 Youssef Nassef

Global pooling is one of the most significant operations in many machine learning models and tasks, which works for information fusion and structured data (like sets and graphs) representation. However, without solid mathematical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Hongteng Xu , Minjie Cheng

Constant product markets with concentrated liquidity (CL) are the most popular type of automated market makers. In this paper, we characterise the continuous-time wealth dynamics of strategic LPs who dynamically adjust their range of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-14 Álvaro Cartea , Fayçal Drissi , Marcello Monga

Investments into renewable energy are increasing rapidly around the world. Energy system models are able to provide insights into optimal investment capacities and thus are widely used to aid the long-term investment decision-making under…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-01-06 Ni Wang , Remco A. Verzijlbergh , Petra W. Heijnen , Paulien M. Herder

Large-scale meteorological disasters are increasing around the world, and power outage damage by natural disaster such as typhoons and earthquakes is increasing in Japan as well. Corresponding to the need of reduction of economic losses due…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-09-06 Hideya Yoshiuchi , Haruna Takaaki , Swapnil Bembde

Single- and multi-layer complex networks have been proven as a powerful tool to study the dynamics within social, technological,or natural systems. An often observed common goal there is to optimize these systems for specific purposes by…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-02-11 Tanja Holstein , Marc Wiedermann , Jürgen Kurths

To face pandemics like the one caused by COVID-19, resources such as personal protection equipment (PPE) are needed to reduce the infection rate and protect those in close contact with patients (Heymann and Shindo, 2020; Klompas et al.,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-28 G. K. den Nijs , J. Edivaldo , B. D. L. Chatel , J. F. Uleman , M. Olde Rikkert , H. Wertheim , R. Quax

We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-17 Vinko Zlatić , Giampaolo Gabbi , Hrvoje Abraham

Global cooperation is posited as a pivotal solution to address climate change, yet significant barriers, like free-riding, hinder its realization. This paper develops a dynamic game-theoretic model to analyze the stability of coalitions…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-23 Lei Zhu , Zhihao Yan , Hongbo Duan , Yongyang Cai , Xiaobing Zhang

In economic applications, model averaging has found principal use examining the validity of various theories related to observed heterogeneity in outcomes such as growth, development, and trade.Though often easy to articulate, these…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-16 Alex Lenkoski , Fredrik Lohne Aanes

Recent developments in deep learning techniques have motivated intensive research in machine learning-aided stock trading strategies. However, since the financial market has a highly non-stationary nature hindering the application of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-15 Kentaro Imajo , Kentaro Minami , Katsuya Ito , Kei Nakagawa

Economic complexity has been linked to sustainability outcomes, such as income inequality and greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, it is unclear whether the pursuit of complex and/or related activities naturally aligns with these outcomes, or…

General Economics · Economics 2025-09-24 Quinten De Wettinck , Karolien De Bruyne , Wouter Bam , César A. Hidalgo

In transmission expansion planning, situations can arise in which an expansion plan that is optimal for the system as a whole is detrimental to a specific country in terms of its expected economic welfare. If this country is one of the…

We analyse a multiplex of networks between OECD countries during the decade 2002-2010, which consists of five financial layers, given by foreign direct investment, equity securities, short-term, long-term and total debt securities, and five…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-17 Franco Ruzzenenti , Andreas Joseph , Elisa Ticci , Pietro Vozzella , Giampaolo Gabbi
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