Related papers: PaleoJump: A database for abrupt transitions in pa…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…
The climate system's nonlinear dynamics is influenced by various external forcings and internal feedbacks that can give rise to regional and even global tipping points that may lead to significant and potentially irreversible changes.…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
Tipping points are one of the hot topics in modern physics of complex systems. But what is a tipping point? A generic definition declares it as ``a state of the system where a small change in its parameters can lead to a significant change…
We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
Complex dynamical systems-such as climate, ecosystems, and economics-can undergo catastrophic and potentially irreversible regime changes, often triggered by environmental parameter drift and stochastic disturbances. These critical…
Tipping elements of the Earth system may shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another at tipping points, resulting in a growing threat to our society. Yet, it is not fully clear how to assess and quantify the influence of a…
Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes…
Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…
Paleoclimate records provide a critical long-term perspective on natural climate variability, essential for understanding contemporary climate change. However, existing paleoclimate proxies lack the spatial-temporal coverage for studying…
The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered substantial attention in the last several decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing…
Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…
Stalagmites are an extraordinarily powerful resource for the reconstruction of climatological palaeoseasonality. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of different types of seasonality preserved by stalagmites and methods for extracting…