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The spontaneous behavioral changes of the agents during an epidemic can have significant effects on the delay and the prevalence of its spread. In this work, we study a social distancing game among the agents of a population, who determine…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-13 A. -R. Lagos , I. Kordonis , G. P. Papavassilopoulos

Planning, implementation and evaluation of public health policies to control the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic require regular monitoring of disease burden. This includes the proportion living with HIV, whether diagnosed or…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-20 Daniela De Angelis , Anne M. Presanis , Stefano Conti , A. E. Ades

U.S. state education agencies mark schools displaying achievement gaps between demographic subgroups as needing improvement. Some schools may have few students in these subgroups, such that average end-of-year test scores only noisily…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Joshua Wasserman , Michael R. Elliott , Ben B. Hansen

Despite the unprecedented success in the rapid development of several effective vaccines against the Cov-SARS-2, global vaccination rollout efforts suffer from vaccine distribution inequality and vaccine acceptance, leading to insufficient…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-09-06 Pooria Taghizadeh Naderi , Ali Asgary , Jude Kong , Jianhong Wu , Fattaneh Taghiyareh

Missing data are ubiquitous in public health research. When estimating causal effects, there are well-established methods to address bias to due missing outcomes. Commonly, causal estimands are defined under hypothetical interventions to…

Selective prediction aims to learn a reliable model that abstains from making predictions when uncertain. These predictions can then be deferred to humans for further evaluation. As an everlasting challenge for machine learning, in many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-04 Jiefeng Chen , Jinsung Yoon , Sayna Ebrahimi , Sercan Arik , Somesh Jha , Tomas Pfister

Computational preference elicitation methods are tools used to learn people's preferences quantitatively in a given context. Recent works on preference elicitation advocate for active learning as an efficient method to iteratively construct…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-07-29 Vijay Keswani , Vincent Conitzer , Hoda Heidari , Jana Schaich Borg , Walter Sinnott-Armstrong

Active inference is a formal approach to study cognition based on the notion that adaptive agents can be seen as engaging in a process of approximate Bayesian inference, via the minimisation of variational and expected free energies.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Filippo Torresan , Keisuke Suzuki , Ryota Kanai , Manuel Baltieri

Estimating the prevalence of a category in a population using imperfect measurement devices (diagnostic tests, classifiers, or large language models) is fundamental to science, public health, and online trust and safety. Standard approaches…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Fridolin Linder , Thomas Leeper , Daniel Haimovich , Niek Tax , Lorenzo Perini , Milan Vojnovic

Active learning is a learning strategy whereby the machine learning algorithm actively identifies and labels data points to optimize its learning. This strategy is particularly effective in domains where an abundance of unlabeled data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-05 Zan-Kai Chong , Hiroyuki Ohsaki , Bryan Ng

Large language models perform well on static medical examinations, yet clinical diagnosis often requires iterative evidence gathering under uncertainty. Building on prior interactive evaluation efforts, we introduce an OSCE-inspired…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Chen Zhan , Xihe Qiu , Xiaoyu Tan , Xibing Zhuang , Gengchen Ma , Yue Zhang , Shuo Li , Peifeng Liu , Xiaoxiao Ge , Liang Liu , Lu Gan

It is commonly-accepted wisdom that more information is better, and that information should never be ignored. Here we argue, using both a Bayesian and a non-Bayesian analysis, that in some situations you are better off ignoring information…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Peter D. Grunwald , Joseph Y. Halpern

It is commonly-accepted wisdom that more information is better, and that information should never be ignored. Here we argue, using both a Bayesian and a non-Bayesian analysis, that in some situations you are better off ignoring information…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-07-29 Peter D. Grunwald , Joseph Y. Halpern

Imputing missing values is an important preprocessing step in data analysis, but the literature offers little guidance on how to choose between different imputation models. This letter suggests adopting the imputation model that generates a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-13 Moritz Marbach

Use-dependent bias is a phenomenon in human sensorimotor behavior whereby movements become biased towards previously repeated actions. Despite being well-documented, the reason why this phenomenon occurs is not yet clearly understood. Here,…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-19 Hokin Deng , Adrian Haith

Recommending items to users is a challenging task due to the large amount of missing information. In many cases, the data solely consist of ratings or tags voluntarily contributed by each user on a very limited subset of the available…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-01 Claire Vernade , Olivier Cappé

In the pool of people seeking partners, a uniformly greater preference for abstinence increases the prevalence of infection and worsens everyone's welfare. In contrast, prevention and treatment reduce prevalence and improve payoffs. The…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2019-05-07 Sander Heinsalu

Suppose we have a Bayesian model which combines evidence from several different sources. We want to know which model parameters most affect the estimate or decision from the model, or which of the parameter uncertainties drive the decision…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-25 Christopher Jackson , Anne Presanis , Stefano Conti , Daniela De Angelis

Evidence-based decision-making entails collecting (costly) observations about an underlying phenomenon of interest, and subsequently committing to an (informed) decision on the basis of accumulated evidence. In this setting, active sensing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-26 Daniel Jarrett , Mihaela van der Schaar

It is not an exaggeration to say that the recent progress in artificial intelligence technology depends on large-scale and high-quality data. Simultaneously, a prevalent issue exists everywhere: the budget for data labeling is constrained.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Yujin Hwang , Won Jo , Juyoung Hong , Yukyung Choi
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