Related papers: Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs:…
Conjugate priors allow for fast inference in large dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models but, at the same time, introduce the restriction that each equation features the same set of explanatory variables. This paper proposes a…
In all areas of human knowledge, datasets are increasing in both size and complexity, creating the need for richer statistical models. This trend is also true for economic data, where high-dimensional and nonlinear/nonparametric inference…
We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…
Most estimates for penalised linear regression can be viewed as posterior modes for an appropriate choice of prior distribution. Bayesian shrinkage methods, particularly the horseshoe estimator, have recently attracted a great deal of…
Vector autoregression (VAR) models are widely used for forecasting and macroeconomic analysis, yet they remain limited by their reliance on a linear parameterization. Recent research has introduced nonparametric alternatives, such as…
We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…
We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…
Macroeconomists using large datasets often face the choice of working with either a large Vector Autoregression (VAR) or a factor model. In this paper, we develop methods for combining the two using a subspace shrinkage prior. Subspace…
The emergence of Big Data raises the question of how to model economic relations when there is a large number of possible explanatory variables. We revisit the issue by comparing the possibility of using dense or sparse models in a Bayesian…
We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for…
Variable selection over a potentially large set of covariates in a linear model is quite popular. In the Bayesian context, common prior choices can lead to a posterior expectation of the regression coefficients that is a sparse (or nearly…
We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
Recent economic events, including the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, have exposed limitations in linear Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models for forecasting and structural analysis. Nonlinear dimension…
Successful forecasting models strike a balance between parsimony and flexibility. This is often achieved by employing suitable shrinkage priors that penalize model complexity but also reward model fit. In this note, we modify the stochastic…
Motivated by the proliferation of extensive macroeconomic and health datasets necessitating accurate forecasts, a novel approach is introduced to address Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. This approach employs the global-local…
Variable selection techniques have become increasingly popular amongst statisticians due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving high-dimensional data where we expect some predictors to be unimportant.…
Large Bayesian VARs are now widely used in empirical macroeconomics. One popular shrinkage prior in this setting is the natural conjugate prior as it facilitates posterior simulation and leads to a range of useful analytical results. This…
This paper investigates the high-dimensional linear regression with highly correlated covariates. In this setup, the traditional sparsity assumption on the regression coefficients often fails to hold, and consequently many model selection…
This article introduces two absolutely continuous global-local shrinkage priors to enable stochastic variable selection in the context of high-dimensional matrix exponential spatial specifications. Existing approaches as a means to dealing…