Related papers: Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs:…
A novel spatiotemporal framework using diverse econometric approaches is proposed in this research to analyze relationships among eight economy-wide variables in varying market conditions. Employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Granger…
Classification and probability estimation are fundamental tasks with broad applications across modern machine learning and data science, spanning fields such as biology, medicine, engineering, and computer science. Recent development of…
The geographically weighted regression (GWR) is a well-known statistical approach to explore spatial non-stationarity of the regression relationship in spatial data analysis. In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian recourse of GWR. Bayesian…
Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length,…
In this work, we propose a novel framework for density forecast combination by constructing time-varying weights based on time series features, which is called Feature-based Bayesian Forecasting Model Averaging (FEBAMA). Our framework…
Quantile regression, a robust method for estimating conditional quantiles, has advanced significantly in fields such as econometrics, statistics, and machine learning. In high-dimensional settings, where the number of covariates exceeds…
I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…
There is currently an increasing interest in large vector autoregressive (VAR) models. VARs are popular tools for macroeconomic forecasting and use of larger models has been demonstrated to often improve the forecasting ability compared to…
We consider a sparse linear regression model with unknown symmetric error under the high-dimensional setting. The true error distribution is assumed to belong to the locally $\beta$-H\"{o}lder class with an exponentially decreasing tail,…
We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the…
Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…
Network modeling of high-dimensional time series data is a key learning task due to its widespread use in a number of application areas, including macroeconomics, finance and neuroscience. While the problem of sparse modeling based on…
The training of high-dimensional regression models on comparably sparse data is an important yet complicated topic, especially when there are many more model parameters than observations in the data. From a Bayesian perspective, inference…
This paper is about variable selection, clustering and estimation in an unsupervised high-dimensional setting. Our approach is based on fitting constrained Gaussian mixture models, where we learn the number of clusters $K$ and the set of…
In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model…
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are deep probabilistic models that are used in scientific applications. Many works try to mitigate this problem from the probabilistic methods perspective by new inference techniques or training procedures.…
In many problem settings, parameter vectors are not merely sparse but dependent in such a way that non-zero coefficients tend to cluster together. We refer to this form of dependency as "region sparsity." Classical sparse regression…
We combine Bayesian prediction and weighted inference as a unified approach to survey inference. The general principles of Bayesian analysis imply that models for survey outcomes should be conditional on all variables that affect the…
In prediction problems with more predictors than observations, it can sometimes be helpful to use a joint probability model, $\pi(Y,X)$, rather than a purely conditional model, $\pi(Y \mid X)$, where $Y$ is a scalar response variable and…
This paper proposes a semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV) model that relaxes the restrictive Gaussian assumption in both the return and volatility error terms, allowing them to follow flexible, nonparametric distributions with…