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We develop a Bayesian methodology aimed at simultaneously estimating low-rank and row-sparse matrices in a high-dimensional multiple-response linear regression model. We consider a carefully devised shrinkage prior on the matrix of…
In this paper we forecast daily returns of crypto-currencies using a wide variety of different econometric models. To capture salient features commonly observed in financial time series like rapid changes in the conditional variance,…
We present the framework of slowly varying regression under sparsity, allowing sparse regression models to exhibit slow and sparse variations. The problem of parameter estimation is formulated as a mixed-integer optimization problem. We…
We assess the relationship between model size and complexity in the time-varying parameter VAR framework via thorough predictive exercises for the Euro Area, the United Kingdom and the United States. It turns out that sophisticated dynamics…
We consider a novel Bayesian approach to estimation, uncertainty quantification, and variable selection for a high-dimensional linear regression model under sparsity. The number of predictors can be nearly exponentially large relative to…
This paper proposes a new Bayesian machine learning model that can be applied to large datasets arising in macroeconomics. Our framework sums over many simple two-component location mixtures. The transition between components is determined…
Vector autoregressions (VARs) are popular model for analyzing multivariate economic time series. However, VARs can be over-parameterized if the numbers of variables and lags are moderately large. Tensor VAR, a recent solution to…
In this paper, we propose Varying Effects Regression with Graph Estimation (VERGE), a novel Bayesian method for feature selection in regression. Our model has key aspects that allow it to leverage the complex structure of data sets arising…
Motivated by the increasing use of and rapid changes in array technologies, we consider the prediction problem of fitting a linear regression relating a continuous outcome $Y$ to a large number of covariates $\mathbf {X}$, for example,…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used for causal discovery and forecasting in multivariate time series analysis. In the high-dimensional setting, which is increasingly common in fields such as neuroscience and econometrics,…
This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach for variable selection in high-dimensional and potentially sparse regression settings. Our method replaces the indicator variables in the traditional spike and slab prior with continuous,…
In Bayesian regression models with categorical predictors, constraints are needed to ensure identifiability when using all $K$ levels of a factor. The sum-to-zero constraint is particularly useful as it allows coefficients to represent…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…
Modern approaches to perform Bayesian variable selection rely mostly on the use of shrinkage priors. That said, an ideal shrinkage prior should be adaptive to different signal levels, ensuring that small effects are ruled out, while keeping…
We develop a modeling framework for dynamic function-on-scalars regression, in which a time series of functional data is regressed on a time series of scalar predictors. The regression coefficient function for each predictor is allowed to…
In recent years, Ising prior with the network information for the "in" or "out" binary random variable in Bayesian variable selections has received more and more attentions. In this paper, we discover that even without the informative prior…
In this chapter, we review variance selection for time-varying parameter (TVP) models for univariate and multivariate time series within a Bayesian framework. We show how both continuous as well as discrete spike-and-slab shrinkage priors…
We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…
We introduce a flexible empirical Bayes approach for fitting Bayesian generalized linear models. Specifically, we adopt a novel mean-field variational inference (VI) method and the prior is estimated within the VI algorithm, making the…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…