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Given access to a single long trajectory generated by an unknown irreducible Markov chain $M$, we simulate an $\alpha$-lazy version of $M$ which is ergodic. This enables us to generalize recent results on estimation and identity testing…
In this work, we extend a modified Anderson acceleration proposed in [Y. He, arXiv:2603.25983, 2026] to accelerate the Picard iteration for the Navier-Stokes equations. In this variant of Anderson acceleration, named AAg, the nonlinear…
We give a complete algorithm and source code for constructing what we refer to as heterotic risk models (for equities), which combine: i) granularity of an industry classification; ii) diagonality of the principal component factor…
There exist very few results on mixing for non-stationary processes. However, mixing is often required in statistical inference for non-stationary processes such as time-varying ARCH (tvARCH) models. In this paper, bounds for the mixing…
In this paper, we revisit the convergence of the Heavy-ball method, and present improved convergence complexity results in the convex setting. We provide the first non-ergodic O(1/k) rate result of the Heavy-ball algorithm with constant…
Approximate inference algorithm is one of the fundamental research fields in machine learning. The two dominant theoretical inference frameworks in machine learning are variational inference (VI) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).…
A random coefficient autoregressive process is deeply investigated in which the coefficients are correlated. First we look at the existence of a strictly stationary causal solution, we give the second-order stationarity conditions and the…
This paper studies ergodic properties of certain measures arising in the dynamics of holomorphic correspondences. These measures, in general, are not invariant in the classical sense of ergodic theory. We define a notion of ergodicity, and…
We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$.…
Graphs are an intuitive way to represent relationships between variables in fields such as finance and neuroscience. However, these graphs often need to be inferred from data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to infer a latent…
We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a linear univariate autoregressive model with sub-Gaussian innovations from a limited sequence of consecutive observations. Assuming that the parameters are compressible, we analyze…
In this paper, we study and analyze the mini-batch version of StochAstic Recursive grAdient algoritHm (SARAH), a method employing the stochastic recursive gradient, for solving empirical loss minimization for the case of nonconvex losses.…
The discrete-time GARCH methodology which has had such a profound influence on the modelling of heteroscedasticity in time series is intuitively well motivated in capturing many `stylized facts' concerning financial series, and is now…
Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…
Canonical characterization techniques that rely upon mean squared displacement ($\mathrm{MSD}$) break down for non-ergodic processes, making it challenging to characterize anomalous diffusion from an individual time-series measurement.…
We develop joint confidence regions for linear regression coefficients when the regressors and errors are jointly stationary and ergodic with unspecified serial dependence. The method applies random smoothing, using an independent auxiliary…
A general class of time-varying regression models is considered in this paper. We estimate the regression coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to…
We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…
Value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are two commonly utilized metrics for quantifying financial risk. In this study, we review the widely employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. These…
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is used for Bayesian analysis of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The HMC algorithm is one of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and it updates all…