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This paper investigates the optimal ergodic sublinear convergence rate of the relaxed proximal point algorithm for solving monotone variational inequality problems. The exact worst case convergence rate is computed using the performance…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-07-15 Guoyong Gu , Junfeng Yang

We propose Significance-Offset Convolutional Neural Network, a deep convolutional network architecture for regression of multivariate asynchronous time series. The model is inspired by standard autoregressive (AR) models and gating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-13 Mikołaj Bińkowski , Gautier Marti , Philippe Donnat

SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-23 Jun Lu , Shao Yi

Exploiting the recent work of Tao and Ziegler on a concatenation theorem on factors, we find explicit characteristic factors for multiple averages along polynomials on systems with commuting transformations, and use them to study criteria…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-02-06 Sebastián Donoso , Andreas Koutsogiannis , Wenbo Sun

We develop a Bayesian framework for variable selection in linear regression with autocorrelated errors, accommodating lagged covariates and autoregressive structures. This setting occurs in time series applications where responses depend on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-18 Alokesh Manna , Sujit K. Ghosh

Improved rates of convergence for ergodic Markov chains and relaxed conditions for them, as well as analogous convergence results for some non-homogeneous Markov chains are studied. The setting from the previous works is extended. Examples…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-27 A. Yu. Veretennikov , M. A. Veretennikova

Standard methods, such as sequential procedures based on Johansen's (pseudo-)likelihood ratio (PLR) test, for determining the co-integration rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system of variables integrated of order one can be…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-08 H. Peter Boswijk , Giuseppe Cavaliere , Luca De Angelis , A. M. Robert Taylor

We obtain the lower bounds for ergodic convergence rates, including spectral gaps and convergence rates in strong ergodicity for time-changed symmetric L\'{e}vy processes by using harmonic function and reversible measure. As direct…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-08 Tao Wang

Heteroskedastic errors can lead to inaccurate statistical conclusions if they are not properly handled. We introduce a test for heteroskedasticity for the nonparametric regression model with multiple covariates. It is based on a suitable…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-21 Justin Chown , Ursula U. Müller

In this paper, we extend recent results on the convergence of ergodic averages along sequences generated by return times to shrinking targets in rapidly mixing systems, partially answering questions posed by the first author, Maass and the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-03 Sebastián Donoso , Sovanlal Mondal , Vicente Saavedra-Araya

Autoregressive models use chain rule to define a joint probability distribution as a product of conditionals. These conditionals need to be normalized, imposing constraints on the functional families that can be used. To increase…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Chenlin Meng , Lantao Yu , Yang Song , Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

Events in spatiotemporal systems are ubiquitous, yet modeling their complex distributions remains challenging. Existing point process models often rely on strong structural assumptions and are typically limited to autoregressive,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Keyan Chen , Qiwei Yuan , Zhitong Xu , Bin Shen , Shandian Zhe

Linear regressions with endogeneity are widely used to estimate causal effects. This paper studies a framework that involves two common practical issues: endogeneity of the regressors and heteroskedasticity that depends on endogenous…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-10 Javier Alejo , Antonio F. Galvao , Julian Martinez-Iriarte , Gabriel Montes-Rojas

We develop a theory of weak Poincar\'e inequalities to characterize convergence rates of ergodic Markov chains. Motivated by the application of Markov chains in the context of algorithms, we develop a relevant set of tools which enable the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-11 Christophe Andrieu , Anthony Lee , Sam Power , Andi Q. Wang

In the paper, we consider the problem of link prediction in time-evolving graphs. We assume that certain graph features, such as the node degree, follow a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and we propose to use this information to improve…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-09-17 Emile Richard , Stephane Gaiffas , Nicolas Vayatis

In this paper we study the ergodicity properties of some adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) that have been recently proposed in the literature. We prove that under a set of verifiable conditions, ergodic averages calculated…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Christophe Andrieu , Éric Moulines

Identifying the number of lags to include in an autoregressive model remains an open research problem due to the computational burden of treating it as a hyperparameter, especially in complex models. This study explores model-agnostic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Juan Pablo Montaño , Mario E. Arrieta-Prieto

We justify and discuss expressions for joint lower and upper expectations in imprecise probability trees, in terms of the sub- and supermartingales that can be associated with such trees. These imprecise probability trees can be seen as…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-19 Gert de Cooman , Jasper De Bock , Stavros Lopatatzidis

We give necessary and sufficient conditions for joint ergodicity results of collections of sequences with respect to systems of commuting measure preserving transformations. Combining these results with a new technique that we call…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-12-19 Nikos Frantzikinakis , Borys Kuca

Significant and persistent trajectory-to-trajectory variance are commonly observed in the particle tracking experiments, which have become a major challenge for the experiment data analysis. In this theoretical paper, we investigate the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-04-17 Liang Luo , Ming Yi