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Constructing approximations that can accurately mimic the behavior of complex models at reduced computational costs is an important aspect of uncertainty quantification. Despite their flexibility and efficiency, classical surrogate models…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-29 S. Marelli , P. -R. Wagner , C. Lataniotis , B. Sudret

Dynamic assessment of mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to stratify patients, inform about treatment effectiveness or serve as part of an early-warning system. Static risk scoring systems, such as APACHE or SAPS,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-03 Jonathan Heitz , Joanna Ficek , Martin Faltys , Tobias M. Merz , Gunnar Rätsch , Matthias Hüser

When longitudinal outcomes are evaluated in mortal populations, their non-existence after death complicates the analysis and its causal interpretation. Where popular methods often merge longitudinal outcome and survival into one scale or…

Even in a carefully designed randomized trial, outcomes for some study participants can be missing, or more precisely, ill-defined, because participants had died prior to date of outcome collection. This problem, known as truncation by…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-27 Tamir Zehavi , Daniel Nevo

This paper is concerned with sample size determination methodology for prediction models. We propose combining the individual calculations via a learning-type curve. We suggest two distinct ways of doing so, a deterministic skeleton of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-24 Alimu Dayimu , Nikola Simidjievski , Nikolaos Demiris , Jean Abraham

Probabilistic values, including Shapley values and semivalues, provide a model-agnostic framework to attribute the behavior of a black-box model to data points or features, with a wide range of applications including explainable artificial…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Ziqi Liu , Kiljae Lee , Yuan Zhang , Weijing Tang

We applied Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (OED) in the estimation of parameters involved in the Equilibrium Dispersive Model for chromatography with two components with the Langmuir adsorption isotherm. The coefficients estimated were…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-08 Jose Rodrigo Rojo-Garcia , Heikki Haario , Tapio Helin , Tuomo Sainio

In this dissertation, we focus on several important problems in structured prediction. In structured prediction, the label has a rich intrinsic substructure, and the loss varies with respect to the predicted label and the true label pair.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-18 Heejin Choi

Adaptive experimental designs have gained increasing attention across a range of domains. In this paper, we propose a new methodological framework, surrogate-leveraged online adaptive causal inference (SLOACI), which integrates predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Yingying Fan , Zihan Wang , Waverly Wei

In confirmatory cancer clinical trials, overall survival (OS) is normally a primary endpoint in the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis under regulatory standards. After the tumor progresses, it is common that patients allocated to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-19 José L. Jiménez , Julia Niewczas , Alexander Bore , Carl-Fredrik Burman

Defining a causal estimand for a longitudinal outcome truncated by death is challenging, because the outcome may be undefined at the end of follow-up. Although a range of estimands and several estimators have been proposed, guidance on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 Juliette Ortholand , Young Lee , Marie-Abele C Bind

Estimating the effective sample size (ESS) is fundamental in Bayesian phylogenetic inference to properly account for autocorrelation in MCMC samples. While methods for continuous parameters are well established, the discrete and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-03-05 Jonathan Klawitter , Lars Berling , Jordan Douglas , Dong Xie , Alexei J. Drummond

Patient-centered outcomes, such as quality of life and length of hospital stay, are the focus in a wide array of clinical studies. However, participants in randomized trials for elderly or critically and severely ill patient populations may…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-17 Dane Isenberg , Michael Harhay , Nandita Mitra , Fan Li

We consider Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equation mixed effects models (SDEMEMs) exemplifying tumor response to treatment and regrowth in mice. We produce an extensive study on how a SDEMEM can be fitted using both exact…

Applications · Statistics 2019-03-28 Umberto Picchini , Julie Lyng Forman

In this paper, we propose a novel approach (SAPEO) to support the survival selection process in multi-objective evolutionary algorithms with surrogate models - it dynamically chooses individuals to evaluate exactly based on the model…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2016-11-02 Vanessa Volz , Günter Rudolph , Boris Naujoks

We consider a stochastic model for a pathogen population in the presence of an immune response, in which pathogen types are partially ordered by ancestry and the immune system must eliminate ancestor types before it can eliminate their…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Carolina Grejo , Fabio Lopes , Fábio Machado , Alejandro Roldán-Correa

When oncologists estimate cancer patient survival, they rely on multimodal data. Even though some multimodal deep learning methods have been proposed in the literature, the majority rely on having two or more independent networks that share…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-13 Numan Saeed , Ikboljon Sobirov , Roba Al Majzoub , Mohammad Yaqub

We study estimation of and inference for the average causal effect of treating every member of a population, as opposed to none, using an experiment that treats only some. Considering settings where spillovers can occur between any pair of…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-29 Stefan Faridani , Paul Niehaus

Objective: Provide guidance on sample size considerations for developing predictive models by empirically establishing the adequate sample size, which balances the competing objectives of improving model performance and reducing model…

Applications · Statistics 2024-07-25 Luis H. John , Jan A. Kors , Jenna M. Reps , Patrick B. Ryan , Peter R. Rijnbeek

Survival extropy, which quantifies the uncertainty associated with the remaining lifetime distribution, provides an information-theoretic perspective on survival behavior. We consider a divergence measure based on survival extropy and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-03 Naresh Garg , Isha Dewan , Sudheesh Kumar Kattumannil