Related papers: Conformal Prediction with Temporal Quantile Adjust…

The diffusion model has gained popularity in vision applications due to its remarkable generative performance and versatility. However, high storage and computation demands, resulting from the model size and iterative generation, hinder its…

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification in time series forecasting by exploiting observations at correlated sequences. Relational deep learning methods leveraging graph representations are among the most effective tools for…

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for prediction in a time series: if we use past data to forecast the next time point, can we provide valid prediction intervals around our forecasts? To avoid placing distributional…

Corrected confidence intervals are developed for the mean of the second component of a bivariate normal process when the first component is being monitored sequentially. This is accomplished by constructing a first approximation to a…

We address the problem of making Conformal Prediction (CP) intervals locally adaptive. Most existing methods focus on approximating the object-conditional validity of the intervals by partitioning or re-weighting the calibration set. Our…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine learning methods are increasingly widely used in high-risk settings such as healthcare, transportation, and finance. In these settings, it is important that a model produces calibrated uncertainty to reflect its own confidence and…

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…

Conformal Inference (CI) is a popular approach for generating finite sample prediction intervals based on the output of any point prediction method when data are exchangeable. Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) algorithms extend CI to the…

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the localization of a sound source within adverse acoustic environments. Estimating the position of the source is influenced by various factors, such as noise and reverberation,…

It is well known that it is impossible to construct useful confidence intervals (CIs) about the mean or median of a response $Y$ conditional on features $X = x$ without making strong assumptions about the joint distribution of $X$ and $Y$.…

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have achieved remarkable success through large-scale pretraining. However, their design primarily targets real-valued series, limiting their ability to handle general forecasting tasks involving diverse…

Existing conformal prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes leverage only baseline covariates, producing prediction intervals that are insufficiently informative to facilitate decision making. We propose History-Aware Prediction Sets…

PyRQA is a software package that efficiently conducts recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) on time series consisting of more than one million data points. RQA is a method from non-linear time series analysis that quantifies the…

Revisiting PCA for Time Series Reduction in Temporal Dimension; Jiaxin Gao, Wenbo Hu, Yuntian Chen; Deep learning has significantly advanced time series analysis (TSA), enabling the extraction of complex patterns for tasks like…

Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictions, they often lack individual-level uncertainty estimates,…

Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground…

We study the problem of quantifying epistemic predictive uncertainty (EPU) -- that is, uncertainty faced at prediction time due to the existence of multiple plausible predictive models -- within the framework of conformal prediction (CP).…

Table question answering (TQA) focuses on answering questions based on tabular data. Developing TQA systems targets effective interaction with tabular data for tasks such as cell retrieval and data analysis. While recent work has leveraged…