Related papers: Aphorisms on Epidemiological Modelling
Most epidemic models are spatially aggregate and the index which is most used for planning and policy numbers, the r number, typically refers to a single system of interest. Even if r numbers are calculated for each of adjacent areas,…
A broad class of systems, including ecological, epidemiological, and sociological ones, are characterized by populations of individuals assigned to specific categories, e.g., a chemical species, an opinion or an epidemic state, that are…
Background: Over the past few decades, numerous forecasting methods have been proposed in the field of epidemic forecasting. Such methods can be classified into different categories such as deterministic vs. probabilistic, comparative…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
Augmenting classical epidemiological models with information from the social sciences helps unveil the interplay between contagion dynamics and social responses. However, multidisciplinary integration of social analysis and epidemiological…
The use of science for policy is at the core of a perfect storm generated by the insurgence of several concurrent crises: of science, of trust, of sustainability. The modern positivistic model of science for policy, known as evidence based…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as scalable solutions to the global mental health crisis. But their deployment in psychiatric contexts raises a distinctive ethical concern: the problem of atypicality. Because LLMs…
We present two new models for interacting populations subject to a transmissible disease. The novelty lies in the assumption that herd behavior influences the disease incidence, rather than the demographic description of the interactions,…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
Assessment of replicability is critical to ensure the quality and rigor of scientific research. In this paper, we discuss inference and modeling principles for replicability assessment. Targeting distinct application scenarios, we propose…
Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for public health response, resource allocation, and outbreak intervention, but remains difficult with sparse, noisy, and highly non-stationary data. Because epidemics unfold across interacting…
Epidemic intelligence deals with the detection of disease outbreaks using formal (such as hospital records) and informal sources (such as user-generated text on the web) of information. In this survey, we discuss approaches for epidemic…
We consider a predator-prey population model with prey gathering together for defense purposes. A transmissible unrecoverable disease affects the prey. We characterize the system behavior, establishing that ultimately either only the…
Evidence-Based Climate Policy (EBCP) is an approach to policymaking that relies on evidence to make decisions about managing climate impacts, mitigation, and adaptation. A core problem for EBCP is the lack of a clear definition of evidence,…
This article reviews and presents various solved and open problems in the development, analysis, and control of epidemic models. We are interested in presenting a relatively concise report for new engineers looking to enter the field of…
Epidemics and outbreaks present arduous challenges requiring both individual and communal efforts. Social media offer significant amounts of data that can be leveraged for bio-surveillance. They also provide a platform to quickly and…
The study of citations in the scientific literature crosses the boundaries between the traditional branches of science and stands on its own as a most profitable research field dubbed the `science of science'. Although the understanding of…
We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…
Infectious diseases have severe health and economic consequences for society. It is important in controlling the spread of an emerging infectious disease to be able to both estimate the parameters of the underlying model and identify those…