Related papers: Aphorisms on Epidemiological Modelling
Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…
Datacentric enthusiasm is growing strong across a variety of domains. Whilst data science asks unquestionably exciting scientific questions, we argue that its contributions should not be extrapolated from the scientific context in which…
Accurate forecasts of disease outbreaks are critical for effective public health responses, management of healthcare surge capacity, and communication of public risk. There are a growing number of powerful forecasting methods that fall into…
This article is devoted to the analysis of a particle system model for epidemics among a finite population with susceptible, infective and removed individuals (SIR). The infection mechanism depends on the relative distance between…
Machine Learning (ML) is increasingly used across many disciplines with impressive reported results. However, recent studies suggest published performance of ML models are often overoptimistic. Validity concerns are underscored by findings…
The aim of this work was to show few examples and few perspective of modeling in epidemiology. We began with differential equations which were a first tool to describe and predict that phenomena. Wroclaw as a cite was very important,…
This position paper is aimed at providing some history and provocations for the use of an ecological metaphor to describe software development environments. We do not claim that the ecological metaphor is the best or only way of looking at…
Deterministic models are developed for the spatial spread of epidemic diseases in geographical settings. The models are focused on outbreaks that arise from a small number of infected hosts imported into sub-regions of the geographical…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the…
Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…
This paper offers the first systematic presentation of the topological approach to the analysis of epidemic and pseudo-epidemic spatial processes. We introduce the basic concepts and proofs, at test the approach on a diverse collection of…
The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper,…
Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…
This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…
In epidemiological studies, the capture-recapture (CRC) method is a powerful tool that can be used to estimate the number of diseased cases or potentially disease prevalence based on data from overlapping surveillance systems. Estimators…
Are some cosmologists trying to return human beings to the centre of the cosmos? In the view of some critics, the so-called "anthropic principle" is a desperate attempt to salvage a scrap of dignity for our species after a few centuries of…
This contribution aims to shed light on mathematical epidemic dynamics modelling from the viewpoint of analytical mechanics. To set the stage, it recasts the basic SIR model of mathematical epidemic dynamics in an analytical mechanics…