Related papers: Is climate change time reversible?
This paper develops a unified and computationally efficient method for change-point estimation along the time dimension in a non-stationary spatio-temporal process. By modeling a non-stationary spatio-temporal process as a piecewise…
We consider a non-linear filtering problem, whereby the signal obeys the stochastic Navier-Stokes equations and is observed through a linear mapping with additive noise. The setup is relevant to data assimilation for numerical weather…
Recurrence plot based time series analysis is widely used to study changes and transitions in the dynamics of a system or temporal deviations from its overall dynamical regime. However, most studies do not discuss the significance of the…
We investigate the identification of the time-dependent source term in the diffusion equation using boundary measurements. This facilitates tracing back the origins of environmental pollutants. Employing the concept of dynamic complex…
We investigate model assessment and selection in a changing environment, by synthesizing datasets from both the current time period and historical epochs. To tackle unknown and potentially arbitrary temporal distribution shift, we develop…
The aim of this paper is to study the feasibility of time-reversal methods in a non homogeneous elastic medium, from data recorded in an acoustic medium. We aim to determine, from partial aperture boundary measurements, the presence and…
For nonequilibrium steady states, we identify observables whose fluctuations satisfy a general symmetry and for which a new reciprocity relation can be shown. Unlike the situation in recently discussed fluctuation theorems, these…
We consider estimation of quantile curves for a general class of nonstationary processes. Consistency and central limit results are obtained for local linear quantile estimates under a mild short-range dependence condition. Our results are…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
Ideas and theories of turbulence based on modifying the Navier-Stokes equation, to obtain equilibrium and non-equilibrium time-reversible dynamical ensembles relevant to helical turbulence, are presented. Discussions of controlling helicity…
Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…
We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces…
In a wide range of applications, the stochastic properties of the observed time series change over time. The changes often occur gradually rather than abruptly: the prop- erties are (approximately) constant for some time and then slowly…
Models of complex dynamical systems like the Earth's climate often involve large numbers of uncertain parameters. Comprehensive exploration of the parameter space is typically prohibitive due to excessive computational costs. Systematic…
In this paper we show that the existence of a primarily discrete space-time may be a fruitful assumption from which we may develop a new approach of statistical thermodynamics in pre-relativistic conditions. The discreetness of space-time…
Quantitative estimates of the contributions of the anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, in particular), and solar activity variations to the trends of the global…
Aiming to generate realistic synthetic times series of the bivariate process of daily mean temperature and precipitations, we introduce a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model. The non-homogeneity lies in periodic transition probabilities…
The relation between time series irreversibility and entropy production has been recently investigated in thermodynamic systems operating away from equilibrium. In this work we explore this concept in the context of financial time series.…
The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. We show for the first time…
Air pollution is a major driver of climate change. Anthropogenic emissions from the burning of fossil fuels for transportation and power generation emit large amounts of problematic air pollutants, including Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). Despite…