Related papers: Is climate change time reversible?
Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization…
Argo floats measure seawater temperature and salinity in the upper 2,000 m of the global ocean. Statistical analysis of the resulting spatio-temporal dataset is challenging due to its nonstationary structure and large size. We propose…
We study three Markov processes on infinite, unrooted, regular trees: the stochastic Ising model (also known as the Glauber heat bath dynamics of the Ising model), a majority voter dynamic, and a coalescing particle model. In each of the…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold…
We introduce a continuous time-reversal operation which connects the time-forward and time-reversed trajectories in the steady state of an irreversible Markovian dynamics via a continuous family of stochastic dynamics. This continuous…
Active matter describes systems whose constituents convert energy from their surroundings into directed motion, such as bacteria or catalytic colloids. We establish a thermodynamic law for dilute suspensions of interacting active particles…
In the paper, "Time & clocks: A thermodynamic approach" Lucia and Grisolia describe the connections between the physical nature of time and macroscopic irreversibility in thermodynamics. They also discuss the possibility of constructing a…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…
Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…
A simple phenomenological account for planetary climate instabilities is presented. The description is based on the standard model where the balance of incoming stellar radiation and outward thermal radiation is described by the effective…
In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
The conditions under which stochastic systems of infinitely many interacting particles can maintain sufficient spatial order to move coherently along a time-periodic orbit, thereby breaking the time-translation invariance of the underlying…
We discuss the nonlinear phenomena of irreversible tipping for non-autonomous systems where time-varying inputs correspond to a smooth "parameter shift" from one asymptotic value to another. We express tipping in terms of pullback…
We discuss tipping phenomena (critical transitions) in nonautonomous systems using an example of a bistable ecosystem model with environmental changes represented by time-varying parameters [Scheffer et al., Ecosystems, 11 (2008), pp.…
Wind farms can be regarded as complex systems that are, on the one hand, coupled to the nonlinear, stochastic characteristics of weather and, on the other hand, strongly influenced by supervisory control mechanisms. One crucial problem in…
Dynamical Ensemble Equivalence between hydrodynamic dissipative equations and suitable time-reversible dynamical systems has been investigated in a class of dynamical systems for turbulence. The reversible dynamics is obtained from the…
Climate statistics is of course a very broad field, along with the many connections and impacts for yet other areas, with a history as long as mankind has been recording temperatures, describing drastic weather events, etc. The important…
We discuss the identification of a time-dependent potential in a time-fractional diffusion model from a boundary measurement taken at a single point. Theoretically, we establish a conditional Lipschitz stability for this inverse problem.…