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Insider information and model uncertainty are two unavoidable problems for the portfolio selection theory in reality. This paper studies the robust optimal portfolio strategy for an investor who owns general insider information under model…
We study discrete-time predictable forward processes when trading times do not coincide with performance evaluation times in a binomial tree model for the financial market. The key step in the construction of these processes is to solve a…
This paper is devoted to the price-storage dynamics in natural gas markets. A novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model is introduced with path-dependence in both price volatility and storage increments. Model calibrations are…
Macroscopic traffic flow is stochastic, but the physics-informed deep learning methods currently used in transportation literature embed deterministic PDEs and produce point-valued outputs; the stochasticity of the governing dynamics plays…
This paper introduces a novel framework for causal inference in spatial economics that explicitly models the stochastic transition from partial to general equilibrium effects. We develop a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM)…
Since Hobson's seminal paper [D. Hobson: Robust hedging of the lookback option. In: Finance Stoch. (1998)] the connection between model-independent pricing and the Skorokhod embedding problem has been a driving force in robust finance. We…
The multidimensional Uncertain Volatility Model leads to robust option pricing problems under joint volatility and correlation uncertainty. Their numerical resolution quickly becomes challenging because the associated stochastic control…
In this era of fast and large-scale opinion formation, a mathematical understanding of opinion evolution, a.k.a. opinion dynamics, acquires importance. Linear graph-based dynamics and bounded confidence dynamics are the two popular models…
We introduce a system of kinetic equations describing an exchange market consisting of two populations of agents (dealers and speculators) expressing the same preferences for two goods, but applying different strategies in their exchanges.…
The price of a financial derivative can be expressed as an iterated conditional expectation, where the inner term conditions on the future of an auxiliary process. We show that this inner conditional expectation solves an SPDE (a…
We present a framework for describing the evolution of stochastic observables having a non-stationary distribution of values. The framework is applied to empirical volume-prices from assets traded at the New York stock exchange. Using…
We consider a bipartite network of buyers and sellers, where the sellers run locally independent Progressive Second-Price (PSP) auctions, and buyers may participate in multiple auctions, forming a multi-auction market with perfect…
In this paper we propose a new model for pricing stock and dividend derivatives. We jointly specify dynamics for the stock price and the dividend rate such that the stock price is positive and the dividend rate non-negative. In its simplest…
Thermodynamics with internal variables is a common approach in continuum mechanics to model inelastic (i.e., non-equilibrium) material behavior. While this approach is computationally and theoretically attractive, it currently lacks a…
The standard Black-Scholes theory of option pricing is extended to cope with underlying return fluctuations described by general probability distributions. A Langevin process and its related Fokker-Planck equation are devised to model the…
Partially observable environments present an important open challenge in the domain of sequential control learning with delayed rewards. Despite numerous attempts during the two last decades, the majority of reinforcement learning…
Financial returns are known to exhibit heavy tails, volatility clustering and abrupt jumps that are poorly captured by classical diffusion models. Advances in machine learning have enabled highly flexible functional forms for conditional…
We consider the filtering problem of estimating a hidden random variable $X$ by noisy observations. The noisy observation process is constructed by a randomised Markov bridge (RMB) $(Z_t)_{t\in [0,T]}$ of which terminal value is set to…
This article is devoted to some time-changed stochastic models based on multivariate stable processes. The considered models have several advantages in comparison with classical time-changed Brownian motions - for instance, it turns out…
The spin market model [S. Bornholdt, Int.J.Mod.Phys. C 12 (2001) 667] is extended into co-evolutionary version, where strategies of interacting and competitive traders are represented by local and global couplings between the nodes of…