English

Stochastic Path-Dependent Volatility Models for Price-Storage Dynamics in Natural Gas Markets and Discrete-Time Swing Option Pricing

Mathematical Finance 2025-07-22 v2

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the price-storage dynamics in natural gas markets. A novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model is introduced with path-dependence in both price volatility and storage increments. Model calibrations are conducted for both the price and storage dynamics. Further, we discuss the pricing problem of discrete-time swing options using the dynamic programming principle, and a deep learning-based method is proposed for numerical approximations. A numerical algorithm is provided, followed by a convergence analysis result for the deep-learning approach.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2406.16400,
  title  = {Stochastic Path-Dependent Volatility Models for Price-Storage Dynamics in Natural Gas Markets and Discrete-Time Swing Option Pricing},
  author = {Jinniao Qiu and Antony Ware and Yang Yang},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.16400},
  year   = {2025}
}