Related papers: Two-dimensional forward and backward transition ra…
Markov decision models (MDM) used in practical applications are most often less complex than the underlying `true' MDM. The reduction of model complexity is performed for several reasons. However, it is obviously of interest to know what…
We propose two variants of the Smith-Wilson method for practical application in the insurance industry. Our first variant relaxes the Smith-Wilson energy and can be used to incorporate less reliable market data with a certain weight rather…
The main goal of these notes is to give a review of the equations for two phase flow problems with an interface between the two phases in a self-contained way, and, in particular, to properly include surface tension into the interface…
In this article, variational state estimation is examined from the dynamic programming perspective. This leads to two different value functional recursions depending on whether backward or forward dynamic programming is employed. The result…
Expectiles are statistical parameters which also provide a class of sublinear risk measures in finance. They are solutions of continuous optimization problems. The corresponding first order condition provides two different fixed point…
In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability…
This study is motivated by two different, yet, connected, motivations. The first one follows the observation that the classical definition of derivatives involves prospective (or forward) difference quotients, not known whenever the time is…
We derive some simple relations that demonstrate how the posterior convergence rate is related to two driving factors: a "penalized divergence" of the prior, which measures the ability of the prior distribution to propose a nonnegligible…
We consider an HJM model setting for Markov-chain modulated forward rates. The underlying Markov chain is assumed to induce regime switches on the forward curve dynamics. Our primary focus is on the interest rate and energy futures markets.…
Mortality displacement is the concept that deaths are moved forward in time (e.g., a few days, several months, and years) by exposure from when they would occur without the exposure, which is common in environmental time-series studies.…
The main purpose of this work is the derivation of a functional partial differential equation (FPDE) for the calculations of equity-linked insurance policies, where the payment stream may depend on the whole past history of the financial…
We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution of a continuous-time perpetuity and the underlying factors which govern the cash flow rate, in an ergodic Markov model. Two approaches are used to obtain the distribution. The…
Life insurance cash flows become reserve dependent when contract conditions are modified during the contract term on condition that actuarial equivalence is maintained. As a result, insurance cash flows and prospective reserves depend on…
This paper examines foreign exchange risk premia from simple univariate regressions to the state-space method. The adjusted traditional regressions properly figure out the existence and time-evolving property of the risk premia.…
Random shifting typically appears in credibility models whereas random scaling is often encountered in stochastic models for claim sizes reflecting the time-value property of money. In this article we discuss some aspects of random shifting…
Semi-Markov models are widely used for survival analysis and reliability analysis. In general, there are two competing parameterizations and each entails its own interpretation and inference properties. On the one hand, a semi-Markov…
A three-dimensional extension of the structural default model with firms' values driven by correlated diffusion processes is presented. Green's function based semi-analytical methods for solving the forward calibration problem and backward…
Surrogate safety measures can provide fast and pro-active safety analysis and give insights on the pre-crash process and crash failure mechanism by studying near misses. However, validating surrogate safety measures by connecting them to…
The dynamics of weak vs. strong first order phase transitions is investigated numerically for 2+1 dimensional scalar field models. It is argued that the change from a weak to a strong transition is itself a (second order) phase transition,…
This paper introduces a couple of new time-frequency transforms, designed to adapt their scale to specific features of the analyzed function. Such an adaptation is implemented via so-called focus functions, which control the window scale as…