Related papers: Implications of Mortality Displacement for Effect …

Competing risk is a common phenomenon when dealing with time-to-event outcomes in biostatistical applications. An attractive estimand in this setting is the "number of life-years lost due to a specific cause of death", Andersen et al.…

Suppose, contrary to fact, in 1950, we had put the cohort of 18 year old non-smoking American men on a stringent mandatory diet that guaranteed that no one would ever weigh more than their baseline weight established at age 18. How would…

The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…

Suitable assumptions for the Gompertz mortality law take into account the break in the time development observed recently by Wilmoth et al. They show how a drastic reduction in the birth rate and improved living conditions lead to a drastic…

There is effect modification if the magnitude or stability of a treatment effect varies systematically with the level of an observed covariate. A larger or more stable treatment effect is typically less sensitive to bias from unmeasured…

Researchers are often faced with evaluating the effect of a policy or program that was simultaneously initiated across an entire population of units at a single point in time, and its effects over the targeted population can manifest at any…

In many countries life expectancy gains have been substantially higher than predicted by even recent forecasts. This is primarily due to increasing rates of improvement in old-age mortality not captured by existing models. In this paper we…

Human migration is a type of human mobility, where a trip involves a person moving with the intention of changing their home location. Predicting human migration as accurately as possible is important in city planning applications,…

How long people live depends on their health, and how it changes with age. Individual health can be tracked by the accumulation of age-related health deficits. The fraction of age-related deficits is a simple quantitative measure of human…

In the evolutionary dynamics of a rock-paper-scissor (RPS) model, the effect of natural death plays a major role in determining the fate of the system. Coexistence, being an unstable fixed point of the model becomes very sensitive towards…

Measures of the direction and strength of the interdependence between two time series are evaluated and modified in order to reduce the bias in the estimation of the measures, so that they give zero values when there is no causal effect.…

A growing body of literature examines the effects of superdiffusive subballistic movement pre-measurement (ageing or time lag) on observations arising from single-particle tracking. A neglected aspect is the finite lifetime of these…

In the past six decades, lifespan inequality has varied greatly within and among countries even while life expectancy has continued to increase. How and why does mortality change generate this diversity? We derive a precise link between…

To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort…

Machine learning models that aim to predict dementia onset usually follow the classification methodology ignoring the time until an event happens. This study presents an alternative, using survival analysis within the context of machine…

Human understanding of randomness and variation is shaped by a number of cognitive biases. Here we relate a lesser-known cognitive bias, the "outcome orientation", to medical questions and describe the harm that the outcome orientation can…

Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…

Models of ordering dynamics allow to understand natural systems in which an initially disordered population homogenizes some traits via local interactions. The simplest of these models, with wide applications ranging from evolutionary to…

Human mortality is in part a function of multiple socioeconomic factors that differ both spatially and temporally. Adjusting for other covariates, the human lifespan is positively associated with household wealth. However, the extent to…

Methods for predicting the probability and timing of a species' extinction are typically based on a combination of theoretical models and empirical data, and focus on single species population dynamics. Of course, species also interact with…