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Numerous studies have examined the associations between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and adverse health outcomes. Recently, many of these studies have begun to employ high-resolution predicted PM2.5 concentrations,…
We propose Radiation Exposure Theory (RET), a mathematical framework to estimate biological damage caused by irradiation. This is an extension of LDM model which was proposed in the paper [Y. Manabe et al.: J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. 81,…
The accumulation of deleterious mutations is driven by rare fluctuations which lead to the loss of all mutation free individuals, a process known as Muller's ratchet. Even though Muller's ratchet is a paradigmatic process in population…
Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…
The distribution of deaths by cause provides crucial information for public health planning, response, and evaluation. About 60% of deaths globally are not registered or given a cause, limiting our ability to understand disease…
The spatial structure of an evolving population affects which mutations become fixed. Some structures amplify selection, increasing the likelihood that beneficial mutations become fixed while deleterious mutations do not. Other structures…
We study the dynamics of an age-structured population in which the life expectancy of an offspring may be mutated with respect to that of its parent. When advantageous mutation is favored, the average fitness of the population grows…
Effects of externally imposed periodic changes in the environment on population dynamics are studied with the help of a simple model. The environmental changes are represented by the temporal and spatial dependence of the competition terms…
We propose a method of estimating the Total Loss of Healthy Life Years based on the first exit time theory for a stochastic process, the resulting Health State Function and the Deterioration Function estimated as the curvature of the health…
The understanding of epidemics on networks has greatly benefited from the recent application of message-passing approaches, which allow to derive exact results for irreversible spreading (i.e. diseases with permanent acquired immunity) in…
The Lee Carter modelling framework is widely used because of its simplicity and robustness despite its inability to model specific cohort effects. A large number of extensions have been proposed that model cohort effects but there is no…
Numerous tutorials and research papers focus on methods in either survival analysis or causal inference, leaving common complications in medical studies unaddressed. In practice one must handle problems jointly, without the luxury of…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
We introduce a new mechanism---the forget-remember mechanism into the spreading process. Equipped with such a mechanism an individual is prone to forget the "message" received and remember the one forgotten, namely switching his state…
Existing theories for the evolution of aging and death treat senescence as a side-effect of strong selection for fertility. These theories are well-developed mathematically, but fit poorly with emerging experimental data. The data suggest…
Different evolutionary models are known to make disparate predictions for the success of an invading mutant in some situations. For example, some evolutionary mechanics lead to amplification of selection in structured populations, while…
Further to the proposal and application of a stochastic methodology and the resulting first exit time distribution function to life table data we introduce a theoretical framework for the estimation of the maximum deterioration age and to…
Working becomes harder as we grow tired or bored. I model individuals who underestimate these changes in marginal disutility -- as implied by "projection bias" -- when deciding whether or not to continue working. This bias causes people's…
Our understanding of evolution is shaped strongly by how we conceive of its fundamental causes. In the original Modern Synthesis, evolution was defined as a process of shifting the frequencies of available alleles at many loci affecting a…
Longitudinal modified treatment policies (LMTP) have been recently developed as a novel method to define and estimate causal parameters that depend on the natural value of treatment. LMTPs represent an important advancement in causal…