Related papers: Implications of Mortality Displacement for Effect …
The contact process is a non-equilibrium Hamiltonian model that, even in one dimension, lacks an exact solution and has been extensively studied via Monte Carlo simulations, both in steady-state and time-dependent scenarios. Although the…
The Risk Ratio (RR) is the ratio of the outcome among the exposed to risk of the outcome among the unexposed. This is a simple concept, which makes one wonder why it has not gained the same popularity as the odds ratio. Using logistic…
This article analyzes the problem of estimating the time until an event occurs, also known as survival modeling. We observe through substantial experiments on large real-world datasets and use-cases that populations are largely…
We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…
The focus of a survival study is partly on the distribution of survival times, and partly on the health or quality of life of patients while they live. Health varies over time, and survival is the most basic aspect of health, so the two…
This study explores the connection between disinformation, defined as deliberate spread of false information, and rate-induced tipping (R-tipping), a phenomenon where systems undergo sudden changes due to rapid shifts in ex-ternal forces.…
Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…
Patients with breast cancer tend to die from other diseases, so for studies that focus on breast cancer, a competing risks model is more appropriate. Considering subdistribution hazard ratio, which is used often, limited to model…
A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…
In the paper the memory effect in the system consisting from a trajectory of process and an environment is considered. The environment is presented by scalar potential and noise. The evolution of system is interpreted as process of the…
Dispersal of species to find a more favorable habitat is important in population dynamics. Dispersal rates evolve in response to the relative success of different dispersal strategies. In a simplified deterministic treatment (J. Dockery, V.…
Difference-in-differences (DID) is a popular approach to identify the causal effects of treatments and policies in the presence of unmeasured confounding. DID identifies the sample average treatment effect in the treated (SATT). However, a…
Individual-specific, time-constant, random effects are often used to model dependence and/or to account for omitted covariates in regression models for longitudinal responses. Longitudinal studies have known a huge and widespread use in the…
Temporal environmental variations are ubiquitous in nature, yet most of the theoretical works in population genetics and evolution assume fixed environment. Here we analyze the effect of variations in carrying capacity on the fate of a…
Electronic health records arise from the complex interaction between patients and the healthcare system. This observation process of interactions, referred to as clinical presence, often impacts observed outcomes. When using electronic…
In recent years, improvements in all-cause mortality rates and life expectancies for males and females in England and Wales have slowed down. In this paper, cause-specific mortality data for England and Wales from 2001 to 2018 are used to…
Survival models are a popular tool for the analysis of time to event data with applications in medicine, engineering, economics, and many more. Advances like the Cox proportional hazard model have enabled researchers to better describe…
Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to…
We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…
The EU Solvency II directive recommends insurance companies to pay more attention to the risk management methods. The sense of risk management is the ability to quantify risk and apply methods that reduce uncertainty. In life insurance, the…