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Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

Individuals of different types, may it be genetic, cultural, or else, with different levels of fitness often compete for reproduction and survival. A fitter type generally has higher chances of disseminating their copies to other…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

We study the health consequences of redistributing political power through the 1975 extension of the Voting Rights Act, which eliminated barriers to voting for previously disenfranchised nonwhite populations. The intervention led to broad…

The commonly observed negative correlation between the number of species in an ecological community and disease risk, typically referred to as "the dilution effect", has received a substantial amount of attention over the past decade.…

In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…

Death has long been overlooked in evolutionary algorithms. Recent research has shown that death (when applied properly) can benefit the overall fitness of a population and can outperform sub-sections of a population that are "immortal" when…

In this paper we investigate the flexibility of matrix distributions for the modeling of mortality. Starting from a simple Gompertz law, we show how the introduction of matrix-valued parameters via inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can…

Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…

In medicine, survival analysis studies the time duration to events of interest such as mortality. One major challenge is how to deal with multiple competing events (e.g., multiple disease diagnoses). In this work, we propose a…

In this paper, we explore the reduction of functionality in a complex system as a consequence of cumulative random damage and imperfect reparation, a phenomenon modeled as a dynamical process on networks. We analyze the global…

Introduction: Modelling of relative treatment effects is an important aspect to consider when extrapolating the long-term survival outcomes of treatments. Flexible parametric models offer the ability to accurately model the observed data,…

Predicting the risk of death for chronic patients is highly valuable for informed medical decision-making. This paper proposes a general framework for dynamic prediction of the risk of death of a patient given her hospitalization history,…

Survival regression is widely used to model time-to-events data, to explore how covariates may influence the occurrence of events. Modern datasets often encompass a vast number of covariates across many subjects, with only a subset of the…

We evaluated the sensitivity of estimated PM2.5 and NO2 health impacts to varying key input parameters and assumptions including: 1) the spatial scale at which impacts are estimated, 2) using either a single concentration-response function…

Memory has a great impact on the evolution of every process related to human societies. Among them, the evolution of an epidemic is directly related to the individuals' experiences. Indeed, any real epidemic process is clearly sustained by…

Epidemic modelling on complex networks has been studied intensively all the time. The majority of relative research assumes that the time scale of the underlying network evolution is much larger compared to the propagation dynamics on it,…

We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…

The decrease in the increase in death rates at old ages is a phenomenon that has repeatedly been discussed in demographic research. While mortality deceleration can be explained in the gamma-Gompertz model as an effect of selection in…