Related papers: Implications of Mortality Displacement for Effect …
Mortality is an instrument of natural selection. Evolutionary motivated theories imply its irreversibility and life history dependence. This is inconsistent with mortality data for protected populations. Accurate analysis yields mortality…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…
The Health and Retirement Study is a longitudinal study of US adults enrolled at age 50 and older. We were interested in investigating the effect of a sudden large decline in wealth on the cognitive score of subjects. Our analysis was…
We examine what happens in a population when it experiences an abrupt change in surrounding conditions. Several cases of such "abrupt transitions" for both physical and living social systems are analyzed from which it can be seen that all…
Standard evolutionary theories of aging and mortality, implicitly based on assumptions of spatial averaging, hold that natural selection cannot favor shorter lifespan without direct compensating benefit to individual reproductive success.…
Mortality forecasting methods in the Lee-Carter tradition extrapolate temporal components via time-series models, often producing forecasts that systematically underpredict life expectancy at long horizons. This bias is consequential for…
In usual demographic analysis, force of mortality is a function of one variable, that is, of age. In this article bi-variate and multivariate force of mortality functions are introduced for the first time to explain mortality differentials.…
Demographic data and recent experiments verify earlier predictions that mortality has short (few percent of the life span) memory of the previous life history, may be significantly decreased, reset to its value at a much younger age, and…
This research explores how total mortality figures relate to age-standardized death rates within the United States, using the complete historical record of national mortality statistics. Through a detailed investigation of both all-cause…
Well protected human and laboratory animal populations with abundant resources are evolutionary unprecedented, and their survival far beyond reproductive age may be a byproduct rather than tool of evolution. Physical approach, which takes…
This paper analyzes mortality cohort effect of birth year and develops an approach to identify and measure cohort effects in mortality data set. The approach is based on differential geometry and leads to an explicit result which can…
Stratifying factors, like age and gender, can modify the effect of treatments and exposures on risk of a studied outcome. Several effect measures, including the relative risk, hazard ratio, odds ratio, and risk difference, can be used to…
Epidemiologists and applied statisticians often believe that relative effect measures conditional on covariates, such as risk ratios and mean ratios, are ``transportable'' across populations. Here, we examine the identification of causal…
The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world…
Correlations between high life expectancy and low lifespan inequality are frequently observed. A recent article seeks to explain this phenomenon by proposing that a mortality improvement maps to life expectancy and relative lifespan…
This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment…
Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…
Continuous-time birth-death-shift (BDS) processes are frequently used in stochastic modeling, with many applications in ecology and epidemiology. In particular, such processes can model evolutionary dynamics of transposable elements -…
There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…