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Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-04-06 Malik Hassanaly , Corey R. Randall , Peter J. Weddle , Paul J. Gasper , Conlain Kelly , Tanvir R. Tanim , Kandler Smith

The spectral energy distribution (SED) is a relatively easy way for astronomers to distinguish between different astronomical objects such as galaxies, black holes, and stellar objects. By comparing the observations from a source at…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-13 Justin J. Yang , Xufei Wang , Pavlos Protopapas , Luke Bornn

Meta-learning is a framework in which machine learning models train over a set of datasets in order to produce predictions on new datasets at test time. Probabilistic meta-learning has received an abundance of attention from the research…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-07 Tommy Rochussen

We introduce Accelerated Sequential Posterior Inference via Reuse (ASPIRE), a broadly applicable framework that transforms existing posterior samples and Bayesian evidence estimates into unbiased results under alternative models without…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2025-11-07 Michael J. Williams

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Inferring atmospheric properties of exoplanets from observed spectra is key to understanding their formation, evolution, and habitability. Since traditional Bayesian approaches to atmospheric retrieval (e.g., nested sampling) are…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-25 Timothy D. Gebhard , Jonas Wildberger , Maximilian Dax , Annalena Kofler , Daniel Angerhausen , Sascha P. Quanz , Bernhard Schölkopf

We believe that a wide range of physical processes conspire to shape the observed galaxy population but we remain unsure of their detailed interactions. The semi-analytic model (SAM) of galaxy formation uses multi-dimensional…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2011-11-07 Yu Lu , H. J. Mo , Martin D. Weinberg , Neal Katz

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Andrew Wood , Moshik Hershcovitch , Daniel Waddington , Sarel Cohen , Peter Chin

We apply and compare various Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and other algorithms for automatic morphological classification of galaxies. The ANNs are presented here mathematically, as non-linear extensions of conventional statistical…

Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-24 O. Lahav , A. Naim , L. Sodre , M. C. Storrie-Lombardi

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

Computation · Statistics 2010-07-28 Michael Blum

This paper proposes a novel approach to generate samples from target distributions that are difficult to sample from using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Traditional MCMC algorithms often face slow convergence due to the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2023-08-11 Sandro Dias Pinto Vitenti , Eduardo J. Barroso

Measuring the physical properties of galaxies such as redshift frequently requires the use of Spectral Energy Distributions (SEDs). SED template sets are, however, often small in number and cover limited portions of photometric color space.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-12-13 J. Bryce Kalmbach , Andrew J. Connolly

Context. Computational techniques are essential for mining large databases produced in modern surveys with value-added products. Aims. This paper presents a machine learning procedure to carry out simultaneously galaxy morphological…

Nested sampling is a Bayesian sampling technique developed to explore probability distributions lo- calised in an exponentially small area of the parameter space. The algorithm provides both posterior samples and an estimate of the evidence…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2015-03-17 Nikolas S. Burkoff , Csilla Varnai , Stephen A. Wells , David L. Wild

When modeling and interpreting the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of galaxies, the simple stellar population (SSP) model, star formation history (SFH) and dust attenuation law (DAL) are three of the most important components. However,…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2019-01-08 Yunkun Han , Zhanwen Han

Bayesian interpretations of neural processing require that biological mechanisms represent and operate upon probability distributions in accordance with Bayes' theorem. Many have speculated that synaptic failure constitutes a mechanism of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-05 Kevin McKee , Ian Crandell , Rishidev Chaudhuri , Randall O'Reilly

We build a theoretical picture of how the light from galaxies evolves across cosmic time. In particular, we predict the evolution of the galaxy spectral energy distribution (SED) by carefully integrating the star formation and metal…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2020-06-23 Dian Triani , Darren Croton , Manodeep Sinha

Unveiling the evolutionary history of galaxies necessitates a precise understanding of their physical properties. Traditionally, astronomers achieve this through spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting. However, this approach can be…

Uncertainty awareness is crucial to develop reliable machine learning models. In this work, we propose the Natural Posterior Network (NatPN) for fast and high-quality uncertainty estimation for any task where the target distribution belongs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Bertrand Charpentier , Oliver Borchert , Daniel Zügner , Simon Geisler , Stephan Günnemann
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