Related papers: Accelerated Bayesian SED Modeling using Amortized …

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC,…

We present simulated galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) from the far ultraviolet through the far infrared, created using hydrodynamic simulations and radiative transfer calculations, suitable for the validation of SED modeling…

Achieving maximum scientific results from the overwhelming volume of astronomical data to be acquired over the next few decades will demand novel, fully automatic methods of data analysis. Artificial intelligence approaches hold great…

The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method tries to estimate the probability distribution of the future state of the atmosphere with a set of past observations that correspond to the best analogs of a deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction…

In this paper we propose a new sampling-free approach to solve Bayesian model inversion problems that is an extension of the previously proposed spectral likelihood expansions (SLE) method. Our approach, called stochastic spectral…

Accurately measuring stellar parameters is a key goal to increase our understanding of the observable universe. However, current methods are limited by many factors, in particular, the biases and physical assumptions that are the basis for…

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

We use Bayesian convolutional neural networks and a novel generative model of Galaxy Zoo volunteer responses to infer posteriors for the visual morphology of galaxies. Bayesian CNN can learn from galaxy images with uncertain labels and…

In recent years we have witnessed a growth in mathematics for deep learning, which has been used to solve inverse problems of partial differential equations (PDEs). However, most deep learning-based inversion methods either require paired…

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational methods for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows. An overarching motif of many Bayesian methods is that they…

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of…

Reliable wall-to-wall biomass density estimation from NASA's GEDI mission requires interpolating sparse LIDAR observations across heterogeneous landscapes. While machine learning approaches like Random Forest and XGBoost are widely used,…

Sequential probabilistic inference from streaming observations requires modeling distributions over future trajectories as new observations arrive. Although diffusion and flow-matching models are effective at capturing high-dimensional,…

This invited feature article introduces and provides an extensive simulation study of a new Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework for estimating the posterior distribution and the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the…

There is an ever-growing need in the gravitational wave community for fast and reliable inference methods, accompanied by an informative error bar. Nested sampling satisfies the last two requirements, but its computational cost can become…

Cosmic shear estimation is an essential scientific goal for large galaxy surveys. It refers to the coherent distortion of distant galaxy images due to weak gravitational lensing along the line of sight. It can be used as a tracer of the…

Bayesian model comparison frameworks can be used when fitting models to data in order to infer the appropriate model complexity in a data-driven manner. We aim to use them to detect the correct number of major episodes of star formation…

The development of mechanistic models of physical systems is essential for understanding their behavior and formulating predictions that can be validated experimentally. Calibration of these models, especially for complex systems, requires…

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for…