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This paper makes two contributions to Bayesian machine learning algorithms. Firstly, we propose stochastic natural gradient expectation propagation (SNEP), a novel alternative to expectation propagation (EP), a popular variational inference…

Simulation based inference (SBI) methods enable the estimation of posterior distributions when the likelihood function is intractable, but where model simulation is feasible. Popular neural approaches to SBI are the neural posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-23 Xiaoyu Wang , Ryan P. Kelly , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational techniques for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows for data analysis. Typical problems in Bayesian workflows…

Generative models and those with computationally intractable likelihoods are widely used to describe complex systems in the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. Fitting these models to data requires likelihood-free inference…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-04 Rui Zhang , Oksana A. Chkrebtii , Dongbin Xiu

Parameter estimation and associated uncertainty quantification is an important problem in dynamical systems characterized by ordinary differential equation (ODE) models that are often nonlinear. Typically, such models have analytically…

Computation · Statistics 2024-03-26 Wai Meng Kwok , Sarat Chandra Dass , George Streftaris

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-09 Elliot Maceda , Emily C. Hector , Amanda Lenzi , Brian J. Reich

In the era of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the dramatic improvement in the spectra of exoplanetary atmospheres demands a corresponding leap forward in our ability to analyze them: atmospheric retrievals need to be performed on…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-06 Anna Lueber , Konstantin Karchev , Chloe Fisher , Matthias Heim , Roberto Trotta , Kevin Heng

The emergence of neural architecture search (NAS) has greatly advanced the research on network design. Recent proposals such as gradient-based methods or one-shot approaches significantly boost the efficiency of NAS. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Yizhou Zhou , Xiaoyan Sun , Chong Luo , Zheng-Jun Zha , Wenjun Zeng

We present an efficient Bayesian SED-fitting framework tailored to multiwavelength pixel photometry from the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey (JADES). Our method employs simulation-based inference to enable rapid posterior sampling…

Aims. We present an innovative artificial neural network (ANN) architecture, called Generative ANN (GANN), that computes the forward model, that is it learns the function that relates the unknown outputs (stellar atmospheric parameters, in…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2016-10-19 C. Dafonte , D. Fustes , M. Manteiga , D. Garabato , M. A. Alvarez , A. Ulla , C. Allende Prieto

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Jan Boelts , Cornelius Schröder , Jonas Beck , Jakob H. Macke , Michael Deistler , Daniel Gedon

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-07-13 Justine Zeghal , François Lanusse , Alexandre Boucaud , Benjamin Remy , Eric Aubourg

Traditional spectral energy distribution (SED)-fitting methods for stellar mass estimation face persistent challenges including systematic biases and computational constraints. We present a controlled comparison of machine learning (ML) and…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2026-02-03 Vahid Asadi , Akram Hasani Zonoozi , Hosein Haghi

Atmospheric retrievals (AR) characterize exoplanets by estimating atmospheric parameters from observed light spectra, typically by framing the task as a Bayesian inference problem. However, traditional approaches such as nested sampling are…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-12-14 Timothy D. Gebhard , Jonas Wildberger , Maximilian Dax , Daniel Angerhausen , Sascha P. Quanz , Bernhard Schölkopf

We present piXedfit, pixelized spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting, a Python package that provides tools for analyzing spatially resolved properties of galaxies using multiband imaging data alone or in combination with integral field…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2021-05-05 Abdurro'uf , Yen-Ting Lin , Po-Feng Wu , Masayuki Akiyama

We develop a Bayesian inference method for discretely-observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Inference is challenging for most SDEs, due to the analytical intractability of the likelihood function. Nevertheless, forward…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-08 Petar Jovanovski , Andrew Golightly , Umberto Picchini

Simulation-based inference (SBI) with neural posterior estimation (NPE) provides rapid X-ray spectral fitting in both Gaussian and Poisson regimes by learning approximate parameter posteriors from simulations. We investigate auto-encoders…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-22 Didier Barret , Simon Dupourqué

Due to their uncertainty quantification, Bayesian solutions to inverse problems are the framework of choice in applications that are risk averse. These benefits come at the cost of computations that are in general, intractable. New advances…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Rafael Orozco , Ali Siahkoohi , Mathias Louboutin , Felix J. Herrmann

Autoregressive (AR) time series models are widely used in parametric spectral estimation (SE), where the power spectral density (PSD) of the time series is approximated by that of the \emph{best-fit} AR model, which is available in closed…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-10-06 Alejandro Cuevas , Sebastián López , Danilo Mandic , Felipe Tobar

PET requires accurate, precise, and efficient scatter correction techniques. Conventional scatter estimation typically relies on tail-fitted single-scatter simulation (SSS) strategy. However, the accuracy of tail-fitted SSS is limited, for…