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Synoptic magnetograms provide us with knowledge about the evolution of magnetic fields on the solar surface and present important information for forecasting future solar activity. In this work, poloidal and toroidal magnetic field…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-02-19 Irina N. Kitiashvili

Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-10-07 Leif Svalgaard

The Sun's activity cycle governs the radiation, particle and magnetic flux in the heliosphere creating hazardous space weather. Decadal-scale variations define space climate and force the Earth's atmosphere. However, predicting the solar…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-09-11 Prantika Bhowmik , Dibyendu Nandy

We examine the temporal changes in both solar polar magnetic field (PMF) at latitudes $\ge$ $45^{\circ}$ and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU during solar cycles 21--24 with emphasis on the recent activity changes after July 2015,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-08-05 Susanta Kumar Bisoi , P. Janardhan , S. Ananthakrishnan

Duration of the extended solar cycles is taken into the consideration. The beginning of cycles is counted from the moment of polarity reversal of large-scale magnetic field in high latitudes, occurring in the sunspot cycle n till the…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. G. Tlatov

A new prediction technique based on logarithmic values is proposed to predict the maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle from the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aamin). The correlation between lnRm and lnaamin (r = 0.92) is…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2011-10-28 Z. L. Du

We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017, and the revised Version-2 of ISSN during…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-01-26 J. Javaraiah

The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-08-29 Jie Jiang , Jing-Xiu Wang , Qi-Rong Jiao , Jin-Bin Cao

Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-06-25 Manfred Schuessler

The 11-year solar cycle is the dominant pattern of solar activity reflecting the oscillatory dynamo mechanism in the Sun. Solar cycles were directly observed since 1700, while indirect proxies suggest their existence over a much longer…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-03-30 I. G. Usoskin , S. K. Solanki , N. Krivova , B. Hofer , G. A. Kovaltsov , L. Wacker , N. Brehm , B. Kromer

Is Solar Cycle 24 anomalous? How do we predict the main features of a forthcoming cycle? In order to reply such questions, this work partitions quantitatively each cycle into valley, ascend, peak, and descend phases, statistically…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-12-26 Baolin Tan

The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-19 Z. L. Du , H. N. Wang

The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-09 Scott W. McIntosh , Sandra C. Chapman , Robert J. Leamon , Ricky Egeland , Nicholas W. Watkins

Solar activity and solar wind parameters decreased significantly in solar cycles (SCs) 23-24. In this paper, we analyze solar wind measurements at the rising phase of SC 25 and compare them with similar data from the previous cycles. For…

We present a comprehensive analysis of Solar Cycle 25 aimed at precisely constraining the interval of its activity maximum using multiple observational parameters: sunspot number (SSN), Wolf number, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-24 Homer Dávila Gutiérrez

A Bayesian method for forecasting solar cycles is presented. The approach combines a Fokker--Planck description of short--timescale (daily) fluctuations in sunspot number (\citeauthor{NobleEtAl2011}, 2011, \apj{} \textbf{732}, 5) with…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Patrick L. Noble , Michael S. Wheatland

The sunspot number varies roughly periodically with time. However the individual cycle durations and the amplitudes are found to vary in an irregular manner. It is observed that the stronger cycles are having shorter rise times and vice…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-05-04 Bidya Binay Karak

Forecasting future solar activity has become crucial in our modern world, where intense eruptive phenomena mostly occurring during solar maximum are likely to be strongly damaging to satellites and telecommunications. We present a 4D…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-02 L. Jouve , C. P. Hung , A. S. Brun , S. Hazra , A. Fournier , O. Talagrand , B. Perri , A. Strugarek

Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-04 Cui Zhao , Kun Liu , Shangbin Yang , Jinchao Xia , Jingxia Chen , Jie Ren , Shiyuan Liu , Fangyuan He

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and…

Astrophysics · Physics 2011-02-11 A. Kilcik , C. N. K. Anderson , J. P. Rozelot , H. Ye , G. Sugihara , A. Ozguc