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After reviewing potential early indicators of an upcoming solar cycle at high latitudes, we focus attention on the rush-to-the-poles (RTTP) phenomenon in coronal green line emission. Considering various correlations between properties of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-12-18 K. Petrovay , M. Nagy , T. Gerják , L. Juhász

Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-20 Bidya Binay Karak

The concept of degree of similarity ({\eta}) is proposed to quantitatively describe the similarity of a parameter (e.g. the maximum amplitude Rmax) of a solar cycle relative to a referenced one, and the prediction method of similar cycles…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-03 Z. L. Du , H. N. Wang

The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near Earth environment. Predictions of both the amplitude and timing of the next solar cycle will assist in estimating…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-20 A. Ajabshirizadeh , N. Masoumzadeh Jouzdani , S. Abbassi

The use of different solar activity indices like sunspot numbers, sunspot areas, flare index, magnetic fields, etc., allows us to investigate the time evolution of some specific features of the solar activity and the underlying dynamo…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2013-10-11 Stefano Sello

We consider the statistical relationship between the growth rate of activity in the early phase of a solar cycle with its subsequent amplitude on the basis of four datasets of global activity indices (Wolf sunspot number, group sunspot…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-06-18 R. Cameron M. Schüssler

We study the shape of sunspot cycles using the Wolf sunspot numbers and group sunspot numbers of solar cycles 1-23. We determine the most typical "model" cycles and the most asymmetric cycles, and test the validity of the two Waldmeier…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2018-12-12 Jouni Takalo , Kalevi Mursula

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 Arnab Rai Choudhuri , Piyali Chatterjee , Jie Jiang

One of the most robust features of the solar magnetic cycle is that the stronger cycles rise faster than the weaker ones. This is popularly known as the Waldmeier Effect, which is known for more than 80 years. This fundamental feature of…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2020-01-01 Suyog Garg , Bidya Binay Karak , Ricky Egeland , Willie Soon , Sallie Baliunas

A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-08-07 Gopal Hazra , Arnab Rai Choudhuri

Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorological stations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-04 Jan-Erik Solheim , Kjell Stordahl , Ole Humlum

We discuss two aspects of the Waldmeier Effect, namely (1) the rise times of sunspot cycles are anti-correlated to their strengths (WE1) and (2) the rates of rise of the cycles are correlated to their strengths (WE2). From analysis of four…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2010-08-18 B. B. Karak , A. R. Choudhuri

Solar cycles vary in their amplitude and shape. There are several empirical relations between various parameters linking cycle's shape and amplitude, in particular the Waldmeier relations. As solar cycle is believed to be a result of the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-05-24 V. V. Pipin , D. D. Sokoloff , I. G. Usoskin

Using neural networks as a prediction method, we attempt to demonstrate that forecasting of the Sun's sunspot time series can be extended to the spatial-temporal case. We employ this machine learning methodology to forecast not only in time…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2019-03-08 Eurico Covas , Nuno Peixinho , Joao Fernandes

The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2024-12-25 Akash Biswas

Empirical rules of solar cycle evolution form important observational constraints for the solar dynamo theory. This includes the Waldmeier rule relating the magnitude of a solar cycle to the length of its ascending phase, and the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2021-01-20 Ilya Usoskin , Gennady Kovaltsov , Wilma Kiviaho

We investigate the statistical properties of the extreme events of the solar cycle as measured by the sunspot number. The recent advances in the methodology of the theory of extreme values is applied to the maximal extremes of the time…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. Asensio Ramos

There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2016-06-07 Stefano Sello

Solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and the amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factors of such a harmonic oscillator are estimated by non-linear fitting the equation of sinusoidal and transient parts to…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-12 K M Hiremath

Total solar irradiance variations, about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum, are available from accurate satellite measurements since 1978 and thus do not provide useful information on longer-term secular trends. Recently,…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2012-05-23 S. Sello