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We develop an iterative framework for Bayesian inference problems where the posterior distribution may involve computationally intensive models, intractable gradients, significant posterior concentration, and pronounced non-Gaussianity. Our…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-16 Daniel Sharp , Bart van Bloemen Waanders , Youssef Marzouk

Comparing concentration properties of uniform sampling with and without replacement has a long history which can be traced back to the pioneer work of Hoeffding (1963). The goal of this short note is to extend this comparison to the case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-22 Anna Ben-Hamou , Yuval Peres , Justin Salez

Let $(M,g)$ be a compact $n$-dimensional Riemannian manifold with nonempty boundary and $n\geq 2$. Assume that ${\mathrm{Ric}(M)\ge (n-1)K}$ for some ${K>0}$ and that $\partial M$ has nonnegative mean curvature with respect to the outward…

Differential Geometry · Mathematics 2025-12-29 Thomas Schürmann

This is a rough write-up of my lecture at Kinosaki and two lectures at RIMS workshops in Dec 1996, on work in progress that has not yet reached any really worthwhile conclusion, but contains lots of fun calculations. History of Vafa's…

alg-geom · Mathematics 2016-08-30 Miles Reid

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Jianqiao Mao , Max A. Little

In an influential critique of empirical practice, Freedman (2008) showed that the linear regression estimator was biased for the analysis of randomized controlled trials under the randomization model. Under Freedman's assumptions, we derive…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-26 Haoge Chang , Joel Middleton , P. M. Aronow

The paper is devoted to the problem of estimation of a univariate component in a heteroscedastic nonparametric multiple regression under the mean integrated squared error (MISE) criteria. The aim is to understand how the scale function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-14 Sam Efromovich

The distance covariance of Sz\'ekely, et al. [23] and Sz\'ekely and Rizzo [21], a powerful measure of dependence between sets of multivariate random variables, has the crucial feature that it equals zero if and only if the sets are mutually…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-22 Dominic Edelmann , Tobias Terzer , Donald Richards

We study corrections to the scaling limit of subcritical long-range Ising models with (super)-summable interactions on $\mathbb{Z}^d$. For a wide class of models, the scaling limit is known to be white noise, as shown by Newman (1980). In…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-31 Trishen S. Gunaratnam , Romain Panis

Matching on covariates is a well-established framework for estimating causal effects in observational studies. The principal challenge stems from the often high-dimensional structure of the problem. Many methods have been introduced to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-12 Florian Gunsilius , Yuliang Xu

Correspondence identifies relationships among objects via similarities among their components; it is ubiquitous in the analysis of spatial datasets, including images, weather maps, and computational simulations. This paper develops a novel…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Chris Bailey-Kellogg , Naren Ramakrishnan

A problem that tends to be ignored in the statistical analysis of experimental data in the language sciences is that responses often constitute time series, which raises the problem of autocorrelated errors. If the errors indeed show…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-12 R. Harald Baayen , Jacolien van Rij , Cecile de Cat , Simon N. Wood

Bergsma (2006) proposed a covariance $\kappa$(X,Y) between random variables X and Y. He derived their asymptotic distributions under the null hypothesis of independence between X and Y. The non-null (dependent) case does not seem to have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-30 Divya Kappara , Arup Bose , Madhuchhanda Bhattacharjee

Measuring the correlation (association) between two random variables is one of the important goals in statistical applications. In the literature, the covariance between two random variables is a widely used criterion in measuring the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-30 Majid Asadi , Somayeh Zarezadeh

This work represents a natural coalescence of two important lines of work: learning mixtures of Gaussians and algorithmic robust statistics. In particular we give the first provably robust algorithm for learning mixtures of any constant…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2021-07-27 Allen Liu , Ankur Moitra

These lecture notes cover advanced topics in linear regression, with an in-depth exploration of the existence, uniqueness, relations, computation, and non-asymptotic properties of the most prominent estimators in this setting. The covered…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-05 Alberto Quaini

The lasso has become an important practical tool for high dimensional regression as well as the object of intense theoretical investigation. But despite the availability of efficient algorithms, the lasso remains computationally demanding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-23 Christopher Genovese , Jiashun Jin , Larry Wasserman

We have observed a common problem of solving for the marginal covariance of parameters introduced in new observations. This problem arises in several situations, including augmenting parameters to a Kalman filter, and computing weight for…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-05-12 Jianzhu Huai

This paper is devoted to the estimators of the mean that provide strong non-asymptotic guarantees under minimal assumptions on the underlying distribution. The main ideas behind proposed techniques are based on bridging the notions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-07 Stanislav Minsker

We propose a Hausman test for the correct specification of unobserved heterogeneity in both linear and nonlinear fixed-effects panel data models. The null hypothesis is that heterogeneity is either time-invariant or, symmetrically,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-09-03 Claudia Pigini , Alessandro Pionati , Francesco Valentini