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Despite the progress in medical data collection the actual burden of SARS-CoV-2 remains unknown due to under-ascertainment of cases. This was apparent in the acute phase of the pandemic and the use of reported deaths has been pointed out as…
In this paper, we introduce a novel modeling framework for incorporating fear of infection and frustration with social distancing into disease dynamics. We show that the resulting SEIR behavior-perception model has three principal modes of…
We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 {\deg}C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 5,484 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases…
The lack of quantitative risk assessment of airborne transmission of COVID-19 under practical settings leads to large uncertainties and inconsistencies in our preventive measures. Combining in situ measurements and numerical simulations, we…
We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…
Recent evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2, which is the virus causing a global pandemic in 2020, is predominantly transmitted via airborne aerosols in indoor environments. This calls for novel strategies when assessing and controlling a…
In this study, we propose a time-dependent Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States of America, Italy and Iceland using public…
Residential aged-care facilities (RACFs, also called long-term care facilities, aged care homes, or nursing homes) have elevated risks of respiratory infection outbreaks and associated disease burden. During the COVID-19 pandemic, social…
The determination of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a key aim for many of the field studies that are currently being undertaken in response to the pandemic. The IFR together with the basic…
In the present article we introduce an epidemiological model for the investigation of the spread of epidemics caused by viruses. The model is applied specifically to COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-Cov-2 virus (aka "novel…
Facing a global challenge with over 6.9 million fatalities, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of CoViD-19, demands novel and comprehensive approaches to understand its complex dynamics. This…
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly spread into a global pandemic. A form of pneumonia, presenting as opacities with in a patient's lungs, is the most common presentation associated with this virus,…
We incorporate local ventilation effects into a spatially dependent generalisation of the Wells--Riley model for airborne disease transmission. Aerosol production and removal through ventilation, biological deactivation, and gravitational…
The transmission of COVID-19 is dependent on social contacts, the rate of which have varied during the pandemic due to mandated and voluntary social distancing. Changes in transmission dynamics eventually affect hospital admissions and we…
The Coronavirus disease outbreak of 2019 has been causing significant loss of life and unprecedented economical loss throughout the world. Social distancing and face masks are widely recommended around the globe in order to protect others…
Hospital-acquired infections of communicable viral diseases (CVDs) are posing a tremendous challenge to healthcare workers globally. Healthcare personnel (HCP) is facing a consistent risk of hospital-acquired infections, and subsequently…
The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected global health, driven by the remarkable transmissibility and mutational adaptability of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Although five variants of concern, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron, have been…
A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…
In this paper, a method to study how the design of indoor spaces and people's movement within them affect disease spread is proposed by integrating computer-aided modeling, multi-agent movement simulation, and airborne viral transmission…
At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…