Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection
Populations and Evolution
2022-02-21 v2
Abstract
We quantified the probability of developing symptoms (respiratory or fever \geq 37.5 {\deg}C) and critical disease (requiring intensive care or resulting in death) of SARS-CoV-2 positive subjects. 5,484 contacts of SARS-CoV-2 index cases detected in Lombardy, Italy were analyzed, and positive subjects were ascertained via nasal swabs and serological assays. 73.9% of all infected individuals aged less than 60 years did not develop symptoms (95% confidence interval: 71.8-75.9%). The risk of symptoms increased with age. 6.6% of infected subjects older than 60 years had critical disease, with males at significantly higher risk.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2006.08471,
title = {Probability of symptoms and critical disease after SARS-CoV-2 infection},
author = {Piero Poletti and Marcello Tirani and Danilo Cereda and Filippo Trentini and Giorgio Guzzetta and Giuliana Sabatino and Valentina Marziano and Ambra Castrofino and Francesca Grosso and Gabriele Del Castillo and Raffaella Piccarreta and ATS Lombardy COVID-19 Task Force and Aida Andreassi and Alessia Melegaro and Maria Gramegna and Marco Ajelli and Stefano Merler},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.08471},
year = {2022}
}
Comments
sample increased: results updated with new records coming from the ongoing serological surveys