Related papers: Risk of SARS-CoV-2 in a car cabin assessed through…
We study viral transmission in crowds via the short-ranged airborne pathway using a purely model-based approach. Our goal is two-pronged. Firstly, we illustrate with a concrete and pedagogical case study how to estimate the risks of new…
The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been emerged as a rapidly spreading pandemic. The disease is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or…
The role of direct cell-to-cell spread in viral infections - where virions spread between host and susceptible cells without needing to be secreted into the extracellular environment - has come to be understood as essential to the dynamics…
Several SARS-CoV-2 variants that evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic have appeared to differ in severity, based on analyses of single-country datasets. With decreased SARS-CoV-2 testing and sequencing, international collaborative studies…
Understanding the impact of different social interactions is key to improving epidemic models. Here, we use extensive registry data -- including PCR test results and population-level networks -- to investigate the impact of school, family,…
As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…
Mechanistic models fit to streaming surveillance data are critical to understanding the transmission dynamics of an outbreak as it unfolds in real-time. However, transmission model parameter estimation can be imprecise, and sometimes even…
The response of many governments to the COVID-19 pandemic has involved measures to control within- and between-household transmission, providing motivation to improve understanding of the absolute and relative risks in these contexts. Here,…
Studying the spatiotemporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infections among healthcare workers (HCWs) can aid in protecting them from exposure. Existing studies related to HCW infections have emphasized infection rates and protective measures.…
The paper develops a stochastic Agent-Based Model (ABM) mimicking the spread of infectious diseases in geographical domains. The model is designed to simulate the spatiotemporal spread of SARS-CoV2 disease, known as COVID-19. Our…
We consider the SEIRS epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. The control of the pandemic dynamics is…
Although previous infection and vaccination provide protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, both reinfection and breakthrough infection are possible events whose occurrence would increase with time after first exposure to the antigen and…
Airlines have introduced a back-to-front boarding process in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is motivated by the desire to reduce passengers' likelihood of passing close to seated passengers when they take their seats. However, our…
Viral transmission pathways have profound implications for public safety; it is thus imperative to establish a complete understanding of viable infectious avenues. Mounting evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted via the air;…
The COVID-19 outbreak resulted in multiple waves of infections that have been associated with different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Studies have reported differential impact of the variants on respiratory health of patients. We explore whether…
We propose a simple dynamic model for estimating the relative contagiousness of two virus variants. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference is conveniently invariant to variation in the total number of cases over the sample period and…
In this paper, we present a method to forecast the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across regions with a focus on the role of mobility. Mobility has previously been shown to play a significant role in the spread of the virus, particularly between…
Increasing number in global COVID-19 cases demands for mathematical model to analyze the interaction between the virus dynamics and the response of innate and adaptive immunity. Here, based on the assumption of a weak and delayed response…
Mathematical models describing SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and the corresponding immune responses in patients with COVID-19 can be critical to evaluate possible clinical outcomes of antiviral treatments. In this work, based on the concept of virus…
Due to the rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, quick public health investigations of the relationships between behaviours and infection risk are essential. Recently the test-negative design was proposed to…