Related papers: Data-Driven Risk Measurement by SV-GARCH-EVT Model
We revisit the problem of pricing options with historical volatility estimators. We do this in the context of a generalized GARCH model with multiple time scales and asymmetry. It is argued that the reason for the observed volatility risk…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…
The entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) is a new coherent risk measure, which is an upper bound for both the value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). As important properties, the EVaR is strongly monotone over its domain and…
In econometrics, the Efficient Market Hypothesis posits that asset prices reflect all available information in the market. Several empirical investigations show that market efficiency drops when it undergoes extreme events. Many models for…
This study introduces a new analytical framework for quantifying multivariate risk measures. Using the Wishart process, which is a stochastic process with values in the space of positive definite matrices, we derive several conditional tail…
Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up…
This article introduces a dynamic spatiotemporal stochastic volatility (SV) model with explicit terms for the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects. Moreover, the model includes time-invariant site-specific constant…
We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…
Standard risk metrics used in model validation, such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance, fail to converge at practical rates when applied to high-frequency financial data characterized by heavy tails (infinite skewness). This creates a…
A new robust stochastic volatility (SV) model having Student-t marginals is proposed. Our process is defined through a linear normal regression model driven by a latent gamma process that controls temporal dependence. This gamma process is…
In this paper, we implement and test two types of market-based models for European-type options, based on the tangent Levy models proposed recently by R. Carmona and S. Nadtochiy. As a result, we obtain a method for generating Monte Carlo…
Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…
Using a family of modified Weibull distributions, encompassing both sub-exponentials and super-exponentials, to parameterize the marginal distributions of asset returns and their multivariate generalizations with Gaussian copulas, we offer…
Analysis of matrix-variate data is becoming increasingly common in the literature, particularly in the field of clustering and classification. It is well-known that real data, including real matrix-variate data, often exhibit high levels of…
For quantitative trading risk management purposes, we present a novel idea: the realized local volatility surface. Concisely, it stands for the conditional expected volatility when sudden market behaviors of the underlying occur. One is…
A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…
In this paper we estimate the conditional value-at-risk by fitting different multivariate parametric models capturing some stylized facts about multivariate financial time series of equity returns: heavy tails, negative skew, asymmetric…
Accurately characterizing the implied volatility curves is a central challenge in option pricing and risk management. The classical SABR model by Hagan et al. has been widely adopted in practice due to its well-defined stochastic volatility…
We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…